Although the robot market in China is in great demand and the robot market is also very hot, due to the lack of high-end technology, many demanders would rather import second-hand robots from foreign robot manufacturers such as KUKA and ABB instead of purchasing domestic industrial robots. In the production line. What exactly is this matter about? How big is the gap between domestic robots and foreign robots?
As the biped balance technology of humanoid robots is more complicated than crawler-type and wheeled robots, it will inevitably bring about quite high costs, and it is not as reliable as crawler-type and wheeled robots in terms of reliability. Therefore, compared to the humanoid robots like Terminator T800 that everyone sees in the movie, the mainstream of the robot market now is the "weird-shaped" industrial robots.
As early as 2013, China has become the world's largest industrial robot market. In 2014, sales reached 57,000 units, an increase of 56% year-on-year, accounting for a quarter of global sales, an increase of 55% year-on-year, and the number of units increased to 190,000 units.
However, just as the robot market continues to be hot, ABB, KUKA, FANUC, and YASKAWA occupy most of the global industrial robot market share. There is a big gap between domestic robot companies and the four giants of foreign ABB, KUKA, FANUC, and YASKAWA.
In 2014, the sales of self-owned brand industrial robots were 17,000 units, accounting for 7.45% of the total global industrial robot sales; in 2015, the sales of self-owned brand industrial robots were 22,000 units, and the domestic market share is still less than 20%. It is in the global industrial robot market The share is still less than double digits. In 2016, foreign brands accounted for more than 60% of China's industrial robot market. For relatively high-end multi-joint robots with more than six axes, foreign brands accounted for more than 80% of the market.
Due to the country's strong support for the robotics industry, there are also domestic companies that use policies to fish in troubled waters. Many companies play with conceptual listing financing or arbitrage policies, and relatively few have core technologies. Moreover, the entire industry still has the problem of small and scattered. The number of Chinese industrial robot-related companies has reached more than 1,000, but more than 90% of the robot companies have an annual output value of less than 100 million yuan. Many manufacturers sell less than 1,000 units per year (only the annual output (Thousands of scale effects can be initially formed.) Even a leading domestic robotics company like Shenyang Sinsong had an operating income of only 1.69 billion yuan in 2015. In the first quarter of 2016, it achieved an operating income of 354 million yuan, which is often tens of billions with foreign giants. Compared with the operating income of yuan, the gap is obvious (the net cash flow of FANUC in 2016 was 686.6 billion yen, which is about 41.5 billion yuan).
There is a big gap between core technology and foreign countriesThe core technology of the robot is human-computer interaction technology, control technology, environmental perception and sensing technology, material technology, artificial intelligence, etc. The key components include precision reducers, controllers, servo motors, and high-performance drives. Parts are largely dependent on imports. Take the reducer which accounts for the highest proportion of robot hardware cost as an example:
Precision reducers can be divided into harmonic gear reducers, cycloid planetary reducers, RV reducers, precision planetary reducers and filter gear reducers, etc. They are the core components of industrial robots and account for the cost of the whole robot Around 35%.
At present, most of the global precision reducer market is occupied by Japanese companies. Japan Harmonic is the leader in the field of harmonic reducers, occupying approximately 15% of the global market share. Japan’s Nabtesco is the world’s largest RV reducer and cycloid reducer. The global market share in the field of RV reducers is about 60%...
Although China has focused on the localization of precision reducers, some units or enterprises have emerged that can partially replace foreign products in the field of high-precision cycloid reducers and harmonic reducers, but in 2015, there were still 75 % Precision reducers are imported from Japan.
The controller is equivalent to the brain of the robot, used to issue and transmit action instructions, including hardware and software:
The hardware is the industrial control board, including some main control units, signal processing parts and other circuits. Although many independent brands have mastered the related technology of the controller and developed industrial robot controllers based on CPU, DSP and FPGA, most of the CPUs used are ARM, and many of the DSPs and FPGAs used are from Texas, USA Although there are robot controllers based on Loongson for instruments and Xilinx, due to the short launch time of products, few manufacturers currently purchase them.
The software part is mainly control algorithm, secondary development, etc. Independent brands have solved the problem of existence, but there is still a gap with foreign countries in terms of stability, response speed, and ease of use.
In addition, in terms of servo motors, Japanese companies account for about 40% of the global market share, and German brands such as Siemens, Bosch, and Schneider account for about 30% of the global market. The overall share of domestic companies is about 10%. In terms of drives, 80% of domestic drives are imported from Europe, America and Japan.
The gap between the application field and foreign robotsDue to the technological gap mentioned earlier, foreign robots are superior to domestic robots in terms of technological advancement and maturity. In the relatively complex multi-joint robot market, foreign companies account for more than 90% of the domestic market, such as automobile manufacturing, The six-axis or above high-end industrial robot market in high-end industries such as welding is mainly occupied by Japanese and European and American companies. Domestic six-axis industrial robots account for less than 10% of the country's new industrial robots.
In contrast, domestic industrial robots are mostly concentrated in low-end applications, such as low-end robots such as handling and palletizing. The application areas are mostly in the fields of home appliances and basic manufacturing, with low added value. As a result, in recent years, although China's robot market demand and domestic robot company product sales have both increased, many robot companies have suffered losses.
There are certain problems with cost controlAs mentioned earlier, because many key parts of domestic robots rely on imports, many domestic companies have to purchase parts such as reducers and servo motors at higher prices than foreign local manufacturers. Moreover, the price of domestic companies purchasing foreign reducers was once three times that of foreign local manufacturers, and the price of purchasing foreign servo motors was twice that of foreign local manufacturers... Because reducers, servo motors, and controllers accounted for the entire robot About 35%, 25%, and 15% of the cost of the robot, it is very difficult for Chinese robot companies to control the production cost.
In contrast, many foreign industrial robot manufacturers are suppliers of core components-Japan's FANUC is the world's largest professional CNC system manufacturer, Yaskawa and Panasonic are both the world's largest motor manufacturers, which makes Foreign robot manufacturers have a natural advantage in cost.
In addition, foreign robot manufacturers can also obtain relatively favorable purchase prices with huge purchases and signing exclusive agreements. These factors together make it difficult for Chinese robot companies to compete with foreign companies in terms of price if they want to guarantee the same product quality as foreign similar products.
Historical reasons for the gapRegarding the gap between the robotics industry and foreign countries, everyone should treat it with peace of mind, and must not negate the entire Chinese manufacturing industry from partial backwardness. Being lagging behind in the robotics industry is caused by historical reasons on the one hand, and there has been a long-term gap in resource input from Western countries.
The development of modern industrial robots began in the middle of the 20th century. One of the first direct development forces was to operate in a nuclear radiation environment. In 1947, the Argonne Institute of the United States developed a remotely operated manipulator that can operate in a nuclear radiation environment. In 1948, a mechanical master-slave manipulator was developed.
In 1954, Davor of the United States designed the first electronically programmable industrial robot. In 1965, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States successfully developed a robot system with visual sensors that can identify and locate simple building blocks. In 1967, Japan's Kawasaki Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. introduced robots and technology from the United States, established a production plant, and trial-produced the first Japanese-made general-purpose manipulator robot in 1968, and subsequently promoted robots in various fields.
By the 1980s, industrial robots began to be widely used in the global automobile manufacturing industry. By the 1990s, the use of industrial robots could prevent the dust carried by workers from polluting the workshop environment, and was further applied in the semiconductor industry and other fields with high requirements for the workshop environment.
It is precisely after decades of accumulation of technology that foreign robot companies have accumulated rich industry experience and technology, which is why they are so dominant in today's international robot market. In contrast, the development of the domestic robot industry is much later. It only started in the early 1970s. Naturally, there is a certain gap between technology and foreign countries.
In addition, in the early years, the country's capital investment in the robot industry was relatively small compared to the investment in Western countries in the same period. Take Japan as an example. After the introduction of American robotics technology, Japan has spared no expense in developing and promoting robotics, while the European Union has spent huge sums of money to support new robotics research projects, covering the complete value chain from technology research and development to product deployment, and in harmony with the industry. Academia reached strategic cooperation.
Many of the problems with domestic robots are not the problems of the robot manufacturers themselves, but the problems of my country's weak industrial base. What's more, robots are high-tech formed by integrating computer, mechanical engineering, electronics, information sensors, control theory, materials, artificial intelligence, bionics and many other disciplines. As a post-industrial country, at this time node, Chinese civil robots are relatively The disadvantages of Europe, America and Japan are rooted in the gap in human, material, and financial investment in the past few decades, as well as the gap between China and the West on the basis of industry. Chinese people do not have to complain about their temporary backwardness.
Can you repeat the journey from imitation to transcendenceIt is pointed out in the official "Robot Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)" that it is necessary to focus on key components such as high-precision reducers, high-performance robot-specific servo motors and drives, high-speed and high-performance controllers, sensors, and end effectors. Finally, the localized replacement of core parts will be realized.
The plan emphasizes the need to make breakthroughs in arc welding robots, vacuum (clean) robots, fully autonomously programmed intelligent industrial robots, human-machine collaborative robots, dual-arm robots, heavy-duty AGVs, fire rescue robots, surgical robots, intelligent public service robots, and intelligent Ten iconic products of nursing robots.
So, the technological gap with foreign countries lies here, what are the specific measures?
In view of the fact that many so-called robot companies in China are not really doing technology sincerely, but rather arbitrage from policies and the stock market, we should strengthen the review and reduce the number of projects that are borrowed from the policy to avoid the dispersion and waste of resources. , Realize the good use of steel on the blade, and realize the optimization of resource integration.
In addition, there is now a problem in the entire robot industry, that is, robot demanders are more willing to purchase second-hand robots from foreign giants rather than domestic ones. Similarly, domestic robot manufacturers are more willing to purchase foreign core parts and components rather than domestic parts (many domestic parts are not cheap) when the price is right, so that domestic manufacturers of precision reducers, controllers, Companies with servo motors and high-performance drives find it difficult to gain a foothold in the market. Therefore, the government should strengthen overall coordination, through funding and policy support, to guide the entire industrial chain to gradually try from the core components to the complete robot, and then to the full localization of the entire production line.
The government can also introduce preferential fiscal and taxation policies, such as the use of scientific and technological support funds, or tax incentives, to give domestic robot companies that truly do technology have sufficient funds for technology research and development. At the same time, the government can broaden investment and financing channels, guide private capital to enter the industry, and support qualified robot companies in direct financing and mergers and acquisitions.
Finally, the key to the robotics industry lagging behind in the West lies in the basic industry, and the progress of the basic industry must depend on encouraging state-owned enterprises to independently research and develop, and combining with private enterprises to become bigger and stronger. South Korea and Japan have relatively small domestic markets, so companies that grow larger must open up the international market and face international competition. Therefore, they have a relatively high enthusiasm for the upstream expansion of the international industrial division of labor. The Chinese market is large, the commercial market is deep, and the offline model is broken. Human resources and mineral resources are abundant and cheaper than those in the West. The political stability policy is continuous. Although the wave of economic globalization has already arrived, private enterprises are still relatively easy to survive and are not subject to external shocks. Coupled with the problem of small and scattered private enterprises in the robotics industry, most private enterprises have inherent deficiencies in research and development of basic core technologies, both in willingness and ability. In contrast, state-owned enterprises not only face international competition, but also have market experience, and they also gather scientific and technological talents. They can be assured of vigorously encouraging and cultivating them to innovate. These state-owned enterprises can improve China's basic industrial technology level and form The pattern of state-owned enterprises becoming stronger and private enterprises bigger.
As China sits on the world’s largest robot market, and with the general trend of rising labor costs and an aging population, the problem of labor shortage will become more and more obvious. The robot market has huge potential. The state has supported policies and funds, plus last year Midea's acquisition of Germany's KUKA has the possibility of realizing partial technology transfer. The author wishes that with the accumulation of time and technology accumulation, China's robotics industry can also replicate the process from imitation to transcendence in China's white goods, communications industry, and electronic product manufacturing.
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