At the end of July, the cold year of 2018 is coming to an end, and the production and sales of the air-conditioning industry has once again become a common concern for the entire home appliance industry.
Looking back at the market performance of the past two years, the sum of sales in June and July of 2016 accounted for almost one-third of the annual sales of air conditioners. Thanks to the national “barbecue†model, the entire air The haze of double decline in annual sales volume; entering the cold year of 2017, the hot weather continued to exert force, coupled with the lag effect of the hot real estate market, the acceleration of urbanization, the rapid penetration of e-commerce platforms and other factors, the domestic air-conditioning market retail volume increased by nearly 30% , Setting a record for the highest sales in history.
As for the performance of the cold year in 2018, some people in the industry are chanting to roll up their sleeves and go fast, and some people bluntly say that the sales are not good and the pressure is great, and the whole industry situation is not clear. To this end, the editor organized a research team to visit the company.
"One word, Wang!"
Manufacturers are generally optimistic about the production and sales situation
During the survey period, most parts of the country were hit by heavy rains, and involuntary trip cancellations and trip delays abound. The investigation has not yet begun, and concerns about the progress of air-conditioning sales due to heavy rain are also seen everywhere on social platforms.
However, unexpectedly, most air-conditioning manufacturers are optimistic about the air-conditioning sales situation in the cold year of 2018.
"From the perspective of the current production and sales progress, the air conditioner market in the cold year of 2018 is just one word, prosperous!" A person in charge of an air conditioner company told the editor that the current market growth situation is still relatively Not bad.
The person explained that from the current statistics, the air-conditioning market has maintained a double-digit growth rate. Although it is much inferior to the growth number of the cold year of 2017, it is based on the slowing trend after the previous big years. The market performance has been quite good. The word "wang" is also based on the expectation that the market will fall after a high base last year.
In addition to air conditioning companies, the production and sales of compressor companies have also confirmed the production and sales of air conditioners to a certain extent.
"The production and sales of air-conditioning compressors are good this year. It is roughly estimated that the domestic sales market will increase by about 20%." The relevant person in charge of GMCC told the editor that although it is impossible to derive specific data on air-conditioning production and sales based on compressor growth data, the increase in air-conditioning production and sales has remained at a constant rate. Two digits are quite certain.
In addition to the direct perception of upstream parts companies, the performance of new brands and small and medium-sized brands is also a barometer of the industry situation.
Regarding the performance of various companies in the cold year of 2018, based on this survey, corporate data, and market organization data, Midea, Haier, and Aux performed outstandingly, and the growth rate of production and sales is expected to be better than the industry average; because Gree has a higher base in the cold year of 2017 High, this year’s growth rate is expected to decline; TCL, Hisense Kelon, Zhigao and other companies are expected to continue to maintain growth momentum; new brands and small and medium-sized brands generally maintain a relatively high growth rate.
“As of the end of June, Shinco’s air-conditioning shipment scale has increased by about 280%, and retail sales has increased by 123%. It has been locked in a win in the cold year of 2018. Shinco’s domestic marketing general manager Han Yihai said at a recent marketing conference that Shinco’s air-conditioning is expected to The sales scale will be around 1.2 million sets.
A related person in the air-conditioning industry told the editor that in addition to Shinco, the production and sales scale of air-conditioning companies such as Meibo and Yuetu are also million-level. Recently, a new air-conditioning brand-"Xinyingyan" has emerged in Guangdong. A rough estimate is that the production and sales of new brands and small and medium-sized air conditioners this year will be about 6 to 7 million sets.
"New brands and small and medium-sized brands are still emerging in the industry. This shows that there is still room for development in the air-conditioning industry this year," said the person.
"Much worse than last year"
Terminal dealers expressed a lot of pressure
Different from the optimistic attitude of production companies, terminal retailers have been bitter in the near future.
Originally, June and July were the peak seasons for air-conditioning sales, but according to many physical store dealers, air-conditioning sales this year were relatively quiet, and the peak season was not very popular. Poor terminal sales. There is a backlog of air conditioners in the warehouse, and the funds are under pressure. It will soon be faced with the signing of the new cold year opening task and policy rebates in August. The pressure can be imagined.
“It’s very early this year, but there are more rainy weather.†A home appliance dealer in North China told the editor. Although he was mentally prepared for the decline in sales after the new year, he still did not expect the sales to be so bad. .
"The sales volume of air conditioners in my store this year is only about 30 to 40% of last year's. Last year, the market broke out and overdrafted part of the demand." A home appliance dealer in central China said bluntly that most home appliance dealers invested in air conditioners approximately accounted for About two-thirds of the total funds, air-conditioning sales are not good, many people have a hard time this year.
Zhang Shaosuo, head of the Home Appliance Distributors Alliance, analyzed that, apart from weather factors and the premature overdraft of the market last year, the property market regulation and changes in the consumption environment in recent years are also important reasons for the poor sales of air conditioners and even the home appliance industry.
According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of 2018, a total of 76 new policies on property market regulation were issued across the country, covering purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, lottery, etc. The restricted cities have been expanded to 50 cities, of which as many as 27 cities in the third and fourth tiers. The most direct reflection of the property market control policy is the decline in the growth rate of housing sales area.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in 2017 was 1,694.08 million square meters, an increase of 7.7% over the previous year. Compared with the 22.5% growth rate of commercial housing sales in 2016, the growth rate in 2017 has dropped significantly. From January to May 2018, the sales area of ​​commercial housing was 564.09 million square meters, a growth rate of only 2.9%.
In terms of the consumer environment, the increase in the leverage ratio of residents will also have a negative impact on the consumer market.
Residents’ leverage ratio is a commonly used indicator to measure the status of resident’s debt, and is used to characterize the proportion of resident sector debt in GDP. Public data show that in 1996, the leverage ratio of Chinese residents was only 3%, and in 2008 it was only 18%. However, since 2008, the leverage ratio of residents has begun to show a rapid growth trend, doubling in just six years to 36.4%. By 2017, the residents' leverage ratio has reached 49.0%. The increase in the proportion of residents’ debt will, to a certain extent, restrain residents’ consumption levels, which in turn will affect the market conditions of related commodities.
"Consumption upgrades and opportunities in the rural market are the home appliance industry that has been mentioned more in the past two years, but this is not as good as expected." Many dealers believe that on the one hand, many people are burdened by the pressure of buying a house to pay off debts. In fact, Disposable income of China is not necessarily ample. Consumption upgrades and consumption "downgrades" exist at the same time, so the effect of current consumption upgrades should not be overstated; on the other hand, the penetration rate of air conditioners and other home appliances in the rural market is indeed not as high as that in towns. However, the massive outflow of population is also an objective fact, so the rural market may not be as "fertile" as in the propaganda.
"The current situation in most rural areas is that the young people are exodus. Most homes are elderly and children, and almost every household has color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners and other small appliances." A home appliance dealer said, rural air conditioners And the demand for other home appliances is not very strong.
Although most physical store dealers are pessimistic, Zhang Shaoshuo told the editor that according to dealers in Guangxi and other places, the sales situation of air conditioners this year is still quite impressive.
According to data from Aowei Cloud Network, in 2016, the number of air-conditioning in 100 households nationwide was 90.9, 123.7 in urban areas, and 47.6 in rural areas, while the overall level in Guangxi was 73.3, urban areas in Guangxi were 128.6, and Guangxi It is 24.4 in rural areas. Excluding provinces affected by geographical factors such as high latitudes and high altitudes, Shanxi, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Shandong, Shaanxi and other provinces still have considerable room for growth.
"Inventory is about 50 million units"
Industry insiders expect inventories to still climb
As early as mid-March of this year, the air conditioner inventory alarm has sounded, and the industry is rumored that the air conditioner inventory has reached 40 million sets. According to sources, in fact, the industry inventory reached 40 million sets at the end of February, but the production capacity of some small and medium-sized brands is not the focus of mainstream companies and mainstream market research institutions.
Industry online monitoring data shows that as of the end of April, the total inventory of the air-conditioning industry was 39.41 million sets.
During the investigation process, the person in charge of the relevant company told the editor that the current industry inventory has climbed to about 50 million sets. According to the average sales volume in the peak season, 50 million sets of inventory will take at least half a year to digest, and the overall inventory level of the industry is already on the high side. If the terminal sales are not smooth during the peak season, the inventory may continue to rise.
"At present, the industry inventory is indeed rising, but appropriate inventory is also necessary, and the production company will make appropriate adjustments according to the production and sales situation." A person in charge of a production company said.
During the investigation process, the relevant person in charge of Midea air-conditioning told the editor that Midea Group had implemented the "T+3" model very early, and the air-conditioning was basically "zero inventory" and there would be no inventory pressure.
The person in charge of TCL air conditioners also said that there is indeed a certain amount of inventory in the industry, but TCL air conditioners promote the rapid turnover of products in channels through diligent and fast sales methods, and its own inventory is relatively reasonable. TCL air conditioners do not have "destocking". statement.
On July 18, TCL "i Lian" series cabinet air conditioners detonated distributors through innovative crowdfunding methods. In just one week, crowdfunding exceeded 200,000 sets.
"Through innovative crowdfunding methods to organically catalyze offline channels can directly ignite the enthusiasm of dealers and achieve immediate up-to-market sales." The person in charge of TCL air conditioners told China State Grid that TCL has long been exploring new retail and has promoted two lines. The integration of commercial terminals is conducive to the coordination of different channels and the comprehensiveness of services.
Compared with the continuous optimization of “top-level design†such as the production and marketing system of Midea, TCL and other companies, most of the home appliance companies in the industry still adopt a sales model that not only puts a lot of pressure on dealers, but also Enterprises will also bring great risks.
In this regard, many terminal distributors called for home appliance manufacturers to further optimize the production and marketing system, change the traditional mode of suppressing goods, establish a new channel system, and coordinate upstream and downstream enterprises to straighten out the relationship between production and sales, so as to better tap market demand and better Service consumers. Otherwise, more dealers "run off" incidents may occur.
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