Electronic enthusiasts eight o'clock: the founder of the US think tank RethinkX, Stanford University lecturer Tony Seba and technology investor and philanthropist James Arbib jointly released an analysis report, predicted by 2030 Almost no one in the United States has a private car. Instead, most people use shareable driverless cars and electric cars.
Seba and Albibu said that in the future, urban traffic will be dominated by private car companies, which will create a network of public unmanned electric vehicles. If this future becomes a reality, it will have a huge impact on the US transportation system. The analysis report predicts that by 2030, the number of private car ownership in the United States will drop by 80%. The number of passenger vehicles on US roads will be reduced from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million. By 2021, using a shared electric car can save 4 to 10 times per mile (1.6 km) compared to buying a new car. Each household can save up to $5,600 per year compared to purchasing and maintaining a traditional car.
By 2020, global oil demand will peak, reaching 100 million barrels per day. It will then gradually decrease, and by 2030 it will require 70 million barrels per day. The reduction in transportation costs has led to a surge in annual disposable income for US households, reaching a total of $1 trillion in 2030. ,
If the vast majority of Americans switch to shared, unmanned electric vehicles, it will have a huge impact on US urban street planning. The report pointed out that in 2030, fewer car mileage will be more, because the shared car does not need to stop. When they send the passengers to their destination, they then need to pick up other passengers. This can save a lot of land for other uses, such as widening sidewalks and building more homes, parks and car-free areas.
On average, cars sold in the United States are vacant for more than 95% of the time. If fewer cars are on the road, the city can turn the city streets and parking lots into other uses. Some cities are already preparing for this future. In the case of San Francisco, the city has turned a large amount of parking space into a “parking and recreation areaâ€, a small green public space that includes benches, plants or artwork. The city of Pittsburgh also said that due to the widespread adoption of driverless cars, urban street construction will be reduced in the next 20 years.
Many car companies are racing to develop driverless cars. In 2016, Tesla Electric Motors hinted that the company intends to launch a carpool service at the end of the year. In addition, the company announced that its latest electric vehicles will be equipped with hardware that will eventually support fully automated driving.
At the same time, Uber became the first company to pilot a driverless car in the real world. Although these private cars use natural gas, Uber CEO Travis Kalanick called UberPool the future of the company, and even the future of American transportation. This app allows strangers to carpool in order to reduce costs. Andrew Salzberg, head of Uber's transportation policy, said: "I believe that the number of people driving their private cars to go anywhere will be greatly reduced."
Old-fashioned automakers such as GM and Ford are also developing their own driverless cars and even considering carpooling services.
Seba and Albibo believe that the parking lot will eventually become useless, and the city needs to reconsider planning and road infrastructure. Seba said: "We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest and most direct subversion of transportation trends in history. But this is nothing magical because it is driven by the economy."
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