This year, the GEM listed companies with the theme of emerging industries in information services have become hot spots for institutional investors. LeTV (300104), Blue Cursor (300058) and PalmTech (300315) became the three biggest gainers in the GEM this year.
The market has always been a few happy ones. Under the strong performance of the GEM, there are high-growth "bull stocks", and there is a long "down". "Investor News" uses the compound growth rate of all listed companies of the GEM in the past three years as a reference indicator, and judges that the GEM 50 parents are not big companies. Among them, the photovoltaic company Tianlong Optoelectronics' performance has fallen the most.
Valuation close to "ceiling": 50 times price-earnings ratio
As of the close of October 31, the average P/E ratio of the GEM was 50.37 times. The number of listed companies in the board increased from 28 to 355 four years ago, and the total market capitalization was expanded from 139.967 billion yuan to 1.38 trillion yuan. In the past four years, the number of GEM companies has increased by nearly 12 times, and the market value has increased by nearly 9 times.
As of October 29, 355 GEM companies have announced their third quarterly reports. The net profit of the 355 GEM companies in the third quarter of this year totaled 18.586 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.10%. In the same period, the small and medium-sized board increased by 7.53% year-on-year, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks increased by 18.72% year-on-year. It seems that the performance of the GEM companies known as “high growth and rapid development†is not satisfactory.
However, in the third quarter, the net profit growth rate is lower than that of the small and medium-sized board and the Shanghai and Shenzhen board. The growth rate of the GEM index from the beginning of the year to October 31 is nearly 60%, far higher than the 21% of the small and medium-sized board.
The growth of the GEM has always been the "candy" and "cannonball" flying together. The average P/E ratio of the GEM has reached 56.34 times during the year (to reach this level on October 21). Is the 60-fold P/E ratio also the “ceiling†of its valuation?
According to media reports, from the historical situation at home and abroad, 60 times dynamic P/E ratio is a "magic" that the GEM is difficult to break. After reaching this valuation level, it is often ushered in a bubble burst.
While the average price-earnings ratio is close to 60 times the "magic", the valuation of the GEM valuation bubble has once again triggered market focus. In the eyes of some industry insiders, the GEM has entered a high-risk area. In May of this year, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had ordered nine GEM companies, including LeTV and Orbit (300053), to issue risk warning announcements for several consecutive days, and industry insiders said that this is the GEM of the regulatory front. "pour cold water on".
50 parents are not big companies: the most mechanical equipment industry
As an important institutional arrangement for building China's multi-level capital market, the GEM market launched four years ago has been given an important mission to promote economic transformation, upgrading and innovation.
According to a senior executive of a Beijing investment institution familiar with the GEM company, “The biggest opportunity for the GEM comes from the transformation of the Chinese economy. The support of the GEM to innovative companies cannot be ignored. From the recent venture capital market. It can be seen that high-tech, high-growth SMEs tend to be more popular."
From the perspective of industry distribution, the effect of strategic emerging industries is becoming more and more obvious. GEM companies cover a new generation of information technology, new energy, new materials, environmental protection and energy conservation, electronic information, advanced manufacturing, biomedicine and other strategic emerging. industry.
And mechanical equipment is clearly not the lucky one. Among the 50 GEM-listed companies with a small number of parents in the “Investor Newsâ€, mechanical equipment companies ranked the most, with a total of 16 companies. The three companies with the largest decline in the net profit compound growth rate are all PV equipment manufacturers in machinery and equipment. They are Tianlong Optoelectronics, Dongfang Risheng and Sunflower.
In the mechanical equipment industry, the average growth rate of net profit of 16 listed companies in the past three years has dropped by 116%. In the first three quarters of this year, operating income and net profit totaled 5.848 billion yuan and 120 million yuan, an increase of 18.30% and 164.51% year-on-year. .
The decline in mechanical equipment performance in the third quarter did narrow. The main reason for this is that the performance base in the third quarter of 2012 was low, and the performance of the machinery industry in the third quarter of last year has fallen sharply.
The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has issued a document saying that the GEM market is mainly targeted at SMEs in the growth stage. Most of the GEM companies are concentrated in a single business, a single region, a single industry or a single customer due to limited resources in the initial stage. They are faced with external shocks such as industry fluctuations, regional market shrinkage, and upstream and downstream environmental changes. .
Among them, Tianlong Optoelectronics became the "champion" in the list, the company is a leading domestic photovoltaic equipment company. In the past three years, the compound growth rate of net profit has fallen by nearly 300%. After landing on the GEM in December 2009, the stock price reached 38.78 yuan. After continuous adjustment, as of October 31, the stock price was only 6.66 yuan, which has fallen by 74.9% since listing. In fact, Tianlong Optoelectronics began to lose money in the first quarter of 2012, and did not turn losses until the end of the third quarter of this year. The cold winter of the photovoltaic industry obviously cannot support the company's high performance growth.
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