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Prospects for LED Lighting Market Trends (I) Trends in China's LED Chip Industry in 2016
Key Analysis
In the first week of 2016, key stocks in the LED industry performed poorly. The industry index fell by 6.96%, and 22 key stocks in the industry fell by 22, with an average decline of -5.31%. The collective correction of the sector, the short-term valuation risk was released.
GGII's latest "2016 China LED Chip Industry Research Report (Seventh Edition)" data shows that the total output value of LED chips in mainland China is about 10.8 billion yuan, an increase of only 8%.
GGII believes that in 2016, China's LED chip industry technology is backward, equipment renewal is slow, and chip factories that do not have the advantages of scale will be discontinued or closed down in batches, and the chip structure will be further clarified.
Market review
 This week's high-tech LED industry index this week, the high-tech LED industry index closed at 1501.5 points, down 14.8%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index closed at 3,361.56 points, down 9.9%, the high-tech LED industry index performance is weaker than the broader market.
22 22 LED key stocks fell this week, with an average decline of 14.6%. Only two stocks rose, namely, Changfang Lighting (0.8%) and Wanrun Technology (9.6%). In addition, Qinshang Optoelectronics and Lehman Optoelectronics were still in suspension, and the remaining 18 stocks all fell, including 8 Individual stocks fell more than 20%.
Key Analysis
Prospects for LED Lighting Market Trends (I) Trends in China's LED Chip Industry in 2016
From 2009 to 2014, China's LED chip industry has made great progress. The industry scale has grown from 2 billion yuan to more than 10 billion yuan. The number of MOCVD has increased from less than 200 units to over 1,100 units, and capacity expansion has exceeded 20 times. However, in 2015 The scale of China's LED chip industry has only slightly increased compared with 2014. The annual industry scale is about 10.8 billion yuan.
Affected by the slowdown in China's economic growth and weak demand in Europe and the United States, the market demand for LED applications has slowed significantly in 2015, and the overcapacity of the LED industry chain is particularly obvious. In 2015, chip makers Sanan Optoelectronics, Huacan Optoelectronics and Dehao Runda Or increase or renovate equipment to increase production capacity, the advantages of large-scale enterprises become more and more obvious, small and medium-sized chip factories stop production or withdraw from the market, and the above-mentioned leading chip manufacturers continue to expand production investment plans in the future, resulting in the initial emergence of Chinese LED chips. The market competition pattern was once again broken, the chip market shuffled faster, and the industry concentration increased rapidly.
According to the analysis of the High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII), the following basic market conditions will be presented in China's LED chip industry in 2016:
1. In 2016, the demand for LED chip industry in China continued to increase, and the decline in chip prices slowed down. The growth rate of the chip industry in the year accelerated.
Second, the proportion of domestic chips to replace imports has further increased, and chip companies have moved from domestic to international, and the proportion of exports has increased.
Third, the technology and performance of LED chips produced in mainland China have surpassed the chips produced in Taiwan, and the gap with the international level is getting smaller and smaller. In the field of small and medium power chips, LED chips produced in mainland China have almost monopolized the market. In the field of high-power chips, the gap between LED chips produced in mainland China and international level technology has also been narrowing.
Fourth, in 2016, the rise of flip-chips, new blue oceans such as UV chips and high-power chips began to involve enterprises, and the traditional chip business was gradually monopolized by several large companies.
5. In 2016, the top five chip companies were cautiously expanding production, focusing on production line transformation. MOCVD was added to replace old equipment, and the annual net increase was reduced.
Sixth, old equipment quickly withdrew, production stopped and long-term suspension of production increased.
The High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII) believes that there will be five major competitive trends in China's LED chip industry in 2016:
I. M&A competition situation: In 2016, the competition elimination of China's LED chip industry will accelerate. Leading enterprises will carry out resource integration and enhance competitiveness. Most of the small and medium-sized chip companies will be eliminated in the form of bankruptcy and production. Enterprises with technical characteristics are merged. may.
Second, the technical competition situation: technical factors have become the most critical factor for enterprise profitability. The leading enterprise product technology has been quite mature. SMEs have established a competitive R&D model, reducing unnecessary R&D investment, and improving the cost performance of R&D investment. The necessary factor to go on.
Third, the equipment competition situation: the performance gap of enterprise equipment is gradually widening, the equipment renewal and transformation of leading enterprises has been completed, the equipment performance is leading the small and medium-sized enterprises, and the equipment backward enterprises completely lose their competitive advantage, and will gradually become a "zombie" enterprise.
Fourth, the scale of competition: the top three LED chips accounted for more than 50% of the scale, and the gap with the latter enterprises gradually widened. The capacity of the top three enterprises will continue to increase, which will suppress the living space of more SMEs, with a scale of less than 200 million yuan. Enterprises will become the main body of production suspension and closure in 2016.
V. International Competitive Situation: In 2016, the international influence of China's LED chip industry was further enhanced. Chip products gradually began to export directly. Chip companies with technology and scale advantages are expected to obtain OEM orders from Europe, America, Japan and Korea.
Individual stock performance
This week, 22 LED key stocks fell, with an average decline of 14.6%. Only two stocks rose, namely, Changfang Lighting (0.8%) and Wanrun Technology (9.6%). In addition, Qinshang Optoelectronics and Lehman Optoelectronics were still in suspension, and the remaining 18 stocks all fell, including 8 Individual stocks fell more than 20%.
Judging from the rise and fall of 22 stocks this week, the majority of 18 stocks fell more than 15%, with 8 stocks falling more than 20%, of which Abisen (300389) fell by a maximum of 26.5%.
The overall performance of the LED sector was weak this week. Investors are advised to pay more attention to the GEM and SME index trends in the later stage, pay attention to changes in market investment sentiment and investment style, and be cautious in operation.
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Source: GGII
High-tech LED industry index
This week's high-tech LED industry index this week, the high-tech LED industry index closed at 1501.5 points, down 14.8%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index closed at 3,361.56 points, down 9.9%, the high-tech LED industry index performance was weaker than the broader market.
In the past two weeks, the high-tech LED industry index continued to decline. This week was the first week of the 2016 opening. The sector index fell sharply. The market showed negative panic. The market was affected by the registration system and the decline of the RMB exchange rate. It may be larger, causing investors to retreat. Investors are advised to exercise caution in the near future.
From the fundamentals of the industry, the trend is not changed. It is recommended that investors be cautious in their operations. After this round of adjustment, they will pay attention to the investment opportunities in the annual report of the company.
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High-tech observation
æ¾³ Aoyang Shunchang plans to invest 1.5 billion yuan to build integrated circuit chip production line (click)
勤 Qinshang Optoelectronics premium over 30 times acquisition of Guangzhou Longwen (click)
 Huacan Optoelectronics 6 billion projects entered Yiwu Industrial Park (click)
ä¸å›½ By 2018, half of Chinese LED companies will go bankrupt (click)
 Three LED lighting standards passed the national standard review (click)
 Jiangxi 100 billion output value LED industry base program landing (click)
 Philips and US University CSU cooperate with plant LED lighting project (click)
ç¡… Silicon substrate LED project won the National Science and Technology Award (click)
Other information
è” Lianshang Optoelectronics: the “屌ä¸â€ counterattack in the field of filament lamps (click)
 Silver 禧 photoelectric listing new three board (click)
ç– Juyi Technology listed new three board (click)
三星 Samsung Electronics LED business team staff will stay in a no-pay? (click)
 Kerui Optoelectronics and Jingri signed a strategic cooperation agreement to penetrate the multi-party market such as landscape lighting (click)
 "Talk" LED standard confusion (click)
 Guoxing photoelectric LED products obtained invention patent certificate (click)
还有 How far is the visible light communication ready to be sent to LiFi? (click)
 Nichia white LED patents in 2017, Taiwanese companies are expected to step out of the new blue sea (click)
 Shandong batch of “Xuanpu†fixed LED lamps were found to be unqualified (click)
 LED light source is used to illuminate high-value agricultural “money†scenes on multiple crops (click)
上游 Upstream chip amplification recruits silicon-based LED power industry chain (click)
è° Who is trapped at the end of the year to collect the debts? (click)
 What is the reason for the price cut in the middle and lower reaches of the demand supply chain? (click)
 “Red envelope†drives a number of LED listed companies to collect money into the pocket (click)
ç»ˆæ¢ Stop buying MOCVD from Sanan to see the chip "Spring and Autumn Warring States" (click)
 Feilo Audio sends a non-binding letter to OSRAM and HSBC terminates the appointment (click)
For more details, please pay attention to the high-tech LED WeChat public number and high-tech LED website.
Investment recommendation
Rectangular lighting (300301), Wanrun Technology (002654).
Analyst:
Name: Li Shengfa
Email: sf.
phone
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High-tech LED industry index fell 14.8%
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Remarks: Select 22 LED stocks as constituent stocks, consider the listed company's LED business weight calculation, the base value is 1000 points, and the base date is January 5, 2015. More detailed information about the index can be analyzed with this report analyst. contact.
Disclaimer
This report is for the customers of the Higher Industrial Research Institute (hereinafter referred to as “the Instituteâ€). The Institute will not treat the recipient as a natural customer of the Institute due to the receipt of this report. This report is issued only with the permission of the relevant laws and is issued only for the purpose of providing information, and does not constitute any advertisement.
The information in this report is based on published information and the Institute does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the Institute on the date of issuance of this report. The price, value and investment income of the securities or investment targets referred to in this report may go up or down. Past performance should not be used as a basis for future performance. At different times, the Institute may issue reports that are inconsistent with the information, opinions and speculations contained in this report. The Institute does not guarantee that the information contained in this report is kept up-to-date. At the same time, the Institute's information contained in this report can be modified without notice, and investors should pay attention to the corresponding updates or modifications.
The investments and services referred to in this report may not be suitable for individual customers and do not constitute personal advice from clients. In no event shall the information in this report or the opinions expressed therein constitute investment advice for any person. In any case, the Institute, the Institute's employees or affiliates do not promise investors to make a profit, do not share investment income with investors, and do not bear any loss caused by anyone using any of the contents of this report. Any responsibility. Investors must be aware that any investment decisions made thereunder are not related to the Institute, the Institute's employees or affiliates.
Market risk, the investment need to be cautious. Investors should not use this report as the sole reference factor for making investment decisions, nor should they consider this report to be a substitute for their own judgment. Before deciding to invest, investors must consult with the professionals and make careful decisions if necessary.
The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Institute. No institution or individual may reproduce, reproduce, publish or cite it in any form without written permission. If it is approved by the Institute for citation or publication, it shall be used within the scope permitted, and the source shall be indicated as “High-tech Industrial Research Instituteâ€, and no reference, abridgement or modification of this report shall be made. .
Gaogong LED Industry Research Weekly (20160104-20160108)
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