How to go with the traditional wind power development model or the road to change new energy

Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Wind Power Development" (hereinafter referred to as "Planning"). According to the "Planning", by the end of 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power will ensure that it will reach 210 million kilowatts or more. It reached 420 billion kWh, accounting for 6% of the country's total power generation.

In the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, decentralized wind power development in the central and eastern regions has become a major focus. However, in the industry's view, the terrain in the central and eastern regions is complex and the wind resources are very different. Therefore, the wind power development model that was applied to the “Three North” region must be adjusted. Wind power developers and wind power manufacturers will face new challenges in how to make the scattered wind energy resources in these regions more fully and efficiently utilized.

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The proportion of decentralized development has increased significantly

As early as the introduction of the "Planning", the industry has agreed that in the context of the continuous abandonment of wind power in the "Three North" region, the development of decentralized wind energy resources in the central and eastern regions is an inevitable trend.

The release of "Planning" finally smashed the hijab. According to the "Planning", in accordance with the principle of "near access, local consumption", the characteristics of wind energy resources are widely distributed and flexible, and on the basis of environmental protection, soil and water conservation and vegetation restoration, the central and eastern regions are accelerated. Large-scale development of onshore wind energy resources in the region. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, it is estimated that the installed capacity of wind power in the country will be more than 80 million kilowatts. Among them, the installed capacity of onshore wind power in the central and eastern regions will account for more than 42 million kilowatts.

In stark contrast to this, during the “Third Five-Year Plan” period, the installed capacity of on-grid wind power in the “Three North” area was about 35 million kilowatts. This means that if the newly installed grid-connected capacity of Shanghai Wind Power is added, the newly installed grid-connected capacity in the central and eastern regions will account for 57% of the newly added grid capacity in the country, much higher than the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. 26%. At the same time, the cumulative installed capacity of grid-connected capacity in this region will also increase to 1/3.

Industry analysts of China Investment Consulting told reporters that with the advancement of wind power technology, although the wind resources below 6 m / s also have economic development, the terrain in the central and eastern regions is complex and diverse, and the location is difficult. The construction cost is relatively high, and the operation and maintenance cost will increase accordingly. Therefore, to ensure the internal rate of return of the development enterprise and minimize the time for investment recovery, it is bound to put forward higher requirements for developers, machine manufacturers and design units. In the past, the standardized development model applied to the “Three North” region was also Need to make changes.

From the tendering equipment to the overall proposal for the tender

A well-known wind power machine related technical personnel told reporters that the traditional wind power development model, from the total installed capacity of the wind farm to the single machine capacity, from the number of aircraft to the height of the tower, etc. have clear constraints. At present, the wind farms that are put into operation basically have to be a single type of wind farm, and there are few phenomena in which different models are mixed.

“This standardized design solution can shorten the construction period to a certain extent and save initial cost investment. For example, a single model can facilitate the design, construction and operation and maintenance management of the design institute, but on the other hand, it cannot fully utilize the effective The wind resources have limited the increase in the amount of power generated by the wind farm and the benefits," said the source.

Wind resources, road conditions and topography in the central and eastern regions vary widely. Obviously, only the targeted design for each project, or even each machine location, can ensure the maximum benefit of the wind farm. The industry generally believes that under the background of decentralized wind power development, the standardized wind power development model in the “Three North” region will inevitably be transformed into a personalized customized wind power development model.

As one industry insider said, a good wind farm must have been designed. Only when the development process of the wind farm is regarded as an integrated system engineering, the wind resources, the fan arrangement and combination, the tower, the foundation, the collector line, the road, the wind farm operation and other factors can be coupled to each other to find Optimized wind farm solution.

“For wind power developers, this means shifting from a simple equipment tender to a wind farm development solution bid. The overall solution for the wind farm can ensure that the wind farm is treated as a whole, thereby maximizing wind power The internal rate of return of the field," said a wind power development company.

There are also people in the industry who believe that in the development of decentralized wind power projects, in order to make better use of wind farm wind energy resources and maximize the performance of the unit, the company will also give full autonomy to the number of installed wind turbines in the future. It is speculated that the customized design of wind turbine capacity will gradually become a trend.

Transforming integrated service providers from pure manufacturers

In recent years, a group of leading wind turbine manufacturers are striving to transform from a single manufacturer to a service provider. For example, multinational giant Vestas, its service business revenue has exceeded the sales of the whole machine. The domestic machine factory business has also expanded the post-operation and service market.

“Before we talked about wind farm services, we are more focused on the operation and maintenance services after commissioning. With the development of decentralized wind power in the central and eastern regions, the customized design of wind farms has become a trend. This requires the whole machine to come up with Complete and efficient wind farm full life cycle solution, the solution not only includes the back-end operation and maintenance, but also highlights the design and optimization of the front-end, covering wind energy resource assessment, wind farm design and unit adaptability assessment. The relevant person of the whole machine told the reporter.

"Under the complicated conditions of distributed wind power, it is not enough for the whole machine to play the role of the equipment supplier, but also assume the role of the wind farm designer. This requires a comprehensive combination of wind conditions, safety, roads, routes, Consider the design and optimization of a wind farm due to factors such as construction and evaluation. For example, according to the parameters of average wind speed, turbulence level, slope and inflow angle of each aircraft point, it is recommended to be the most suitable for each aircraft position. Customized models, final determination of single-unit capacity, hub height and other indicators, through the mixing of different capacity units to save the front-end investment for the owners, improve the benefits of the entire wind farm." A wind resource serving a famous domestic wind power machine According to the engineer, “Distributed wind power needs to fully apply big data and intelligent operation and maintenance technologies in the post-market operation and maintenance process because of its dispersion and small monomer capacity, thus helping the owners to reduce the operation and maintenance costs.”

According to reports, the current development of wind farms in low wind speed areas is still dominated by central enterprises such as “five big six small”, but the proportion of local enterprises and private enterprises as developers is increasing significantly. For small and medium-sized developers, financing support is also a major consideration for selecting a complete machine. This means that if the whole machine company wants to be competitive, its service scope should include not only the wind farm design optimization plan in the early stage of construction, but also the operation and maintenance service plan in the later stage, and also provide the financial support plan in the construction process.

The "Planning" issued this time also clearly stated that by improving the insurance service system, the risk prevention and control level of the wind power industry will be improved. Reduce financing costs through innovative financing models. Make the financial system better serve the development of the wind power industry.

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