When the automotive industry generally hits the “electricity†market, and the pure electric vehicle market is nowhere to be found, we suddenly found that many companies have joined fuel cell vehicles. The demand for hydrogen-fueled vehicles has gradually increased and it has been hailed as even more. Sustainable development resources. It should be noted that these companies do not want to “sword awayâ€, but instead they plan for “more preparations†in the future. With regard to the current development resources, policies, and social environment of hydrogen fuel new energy vehicles, how many opportunities can hydrogen fuel vehicles take up in the future in the overall layout of “pure electric vehicles + hybrid + plug-in hybrids?†With the EV and FCV models competing, who will "eat meat" in the future who will "drink soup"?
The next five years
Passenger car "electric" dominant? Commercial Vehicle "Hydrogen" Plays
In 2025, there will be drastic changes to the global automotive industry. According to national plans, new energy vehicles will dominate the mainstream. Although the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has been put on the agenda, what will happen to FCV hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the next decade? Can you call the current EV pure electric car as the "main theme"? In response, a number of car manufacturers related responsible person said in an interview with reporters that the next decade's passenger car market should be "electric"-based, "hydrogen" supplement. BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu believes that among the electrified cars in the future, the status of pure electric vehicles is very important. From a worldwide perspective, lithium batteries still dominate the market, and the proportion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the entire automotive market is extremely small.
At present, Japan is only able to make hydrogen energy available in the passenger vehicle field globally, and it is only planned to use hydrogen fuel cells in the commercial vehicle field for connectivity. In China, only the commercial vehicle industry continues to report the promotion of hydrogen fuel vehicles by companies and local governments. In the next 3 to 7 years (2020 to 2025) plan for most car companies, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be commercial vehicles. In the field of passenger vehicles, because of the lack of substantial breakthroughs in key technologies, there are few mature hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
Lan Qingsong, vice president of SAIC Group, said in an interview with this reporter that hydrogen fueled vehicles are more suitable for commercial vehicles because commercial vehicles have a larger body size and do not have to worry about the occupation of space in the vehicle, and they have better mileage. The hydrogenation rate is fast, which obviously improves the transportation efficiency. Even on the bus is a good choice. In September last year, it settled in Changjiang Automobile's hydrogen hydrogen production base in Foshan. Its important product is also a hydrogen fuel cell bus. Future products are also used in the commercial vehicle segment.
But after ten years, nobody can say it. If the Honda fuel cell product plan is very aggressive, the target is that by 2030, more than two-thirds of the models in the Honda product line will be fuel cell models, which is currently only 5%. Mao Zongqiang, deputy chairman of the International Hydrogen Energy Association and professor of the Institute of Nuclear Energy and New Energy Technology at Tsinghua University, said that in terms of hydrogen fuel cell cars, the current level of Japan is still ahead, and our country is catching up. Mao Zongqiang expects that China will be able to Catch up with Japan. In other words, by 2025, China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will penetrate into the field of passenger vehicles, and the technology will reach the world's top level.
2025 China has 120,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
In "Made in China 2025," China's development goal for fuel cell vehicles is to produce 1,000 or so fuel cell vehicles for demonstration operations by 2020; by 2025, hydrogen, hydrogen, and other supporting equipment must be improved. Batteries and automobiles can realize regional small-scale operation. By then, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on roads in China will reach 120,000. By 2030, China will implement large-scale promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and there will be more than 1 million hydrogen vehicles on China’s roads. Fuel cell vehicles shuttle. As for “electricityâ€, China’s plan is that by 2020, all new energy vehicles will be planned for 2 million vehicles, of which the sales of self-owned brands of pure electric vehicles and plug-in new energy vehicles will exceed one million; by 2025, annual sales will reach 300. Millions of vehicles account for more than 80% of the domestic market.
In simple terms, according to China's current plans, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will have the scale of “large-scale deployment and application†by 2030, that is, after 12 years. Relatively speaking, the large-scale application of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles is now in the moment. The difference between the two development plans is about 10 years. China Automobile Association, said that it is estimated that by 2020 China's new car production and sales will reach 30 million to 32 million vehicles. By then, China's new energy vehicle production and sales plan is 2 million, accounting for about 6.5% of the total new car. Of these, pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles account for about 50% of the total new energy vehicles, while hydrogen fuel cell vehicles account for less than 0.5%, and it is only expected to rise to 4% by 2025.
Most car companies choose "two legs" to walk
How do major car companies plan the development of hydrogen or electricity? Two years ago, when the world was devising blueprints for the future of new energy vehicles led by pure electric vehicles, the reporter at the General Motors Research and Development Center in Detroit, with the guidance of local scientific researchers, met for the first time the cooperation between GM and Honda. Laboratory equipment for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (still at an unpublished stage). At that time, researchers from the General Motors R&D Center told us that the direction of future electrification of General Motors will not place all of the “Bao†on pure electric vehicles. Sure enough, in February 2017, GM and Honda jointly announced plans to jointly manufacture hydrogen fuel cell systems and set up a fuel cell joint venture. 2020? Year start production.
The reporter noticed that the traditional car companies have insisted on walking "two legs" on the future new energy vehicle route. At present, the first echelon of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is Toyota, Honda, GM, and Hyundai, and Toyota's Mirai is the representative product. Hyundai also tested a self-driving hydrogen fuel cell car at the Pingchang Winter Olympics. "NEXO". In the German top three, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi are also developing fuel cell systems. BMW will soon announce a fuel cell-powered prototype and agree to share technology with Toyota. Although for the European car companies, electric car products are still the current core, BMW i series is representative. It now appears that the competition between the two options is about to get hot.
On the other hand, the road to large-scale hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China is still long-term. At present, the energy of most passenger car companies is fully committed to "electricity" warfare. At the end of March, Feng Xingya, general manager of GAC Group, went to the Honda Motor Co., Ltd. headquarters and went to the exhibition area of ​​hydrogen energy vehicles. He listened in detail to the introduction of hydrogen energy vehicles and hydrogen energy stations and expressed keen interest in hydrogen energy vehicles. However, in the domestic market, GAC Group's joint venture companies and independent brands, R & D focus is still on pure electric vehicles, hybrid power. Geely Automobile Chairman Li Shufu said that 90% of the cars sold by Geely will be new energy vehicles by 2020, but in the planning, EV pure electric vehicles, HEV, and PHEV are the main products. Geely believes that this is what consumers need. of. Among the start-ups, the final six production qualifications of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are all pure electric vehicle manufacturers.
The current domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are not only rare, but also very "partial." According to incomplete statistics, SAIC Datong, Yutong Bus, Zhongtong Bus, BYD, Jinlong Auto, Beijing Automotive, and Foton Motors are all staring at the “new blue ocean†of hydrogen fuel, but they are all concentrated in the commercial vehicle sector.
The future of new energy vehicles "a hundred flowers bloom"
According to the latest statistics from the National Federation of Fellowships, from January to March 2018, cumulative sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 117,000, which represented a significant increase of 136% over the same period of last year. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the CLUCC National Committee, believes that as the growth momentum of new energy vehicles shifts from purchase of restricted goods and subsidy policies to market pull, the strong performance of the market in the first quarter of 2018 fully demonstrates that the trend of market-oriented demand is gradually being released. The entire new energy automobile industry is undoubtedly a major advantage. With the encouragement of many positive policies, the future demand for China's new energy automobile market will spiral upward and reach a major year.
Cui Dongshu pointed out that in China and other countries, the general idea of ​​new energy vehicles in the future is to focus on the development of pure electric vehicles, but at the same time it will tend to be a variety of new energy vehicles. Lu Yong, Dean of the Shanghai Branch of the Shanghai Electric Apparatus Research Institute, said that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles seem to “reverse†the trend of the development of pure electric vehicles, but they have not reversed the trend of the world, and even conformed to the world’s environmental protection trend. At present, new energy automotive technology does not say absolutely what is good, nor what kind is absolutely not good. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. The choice of a variety of new energy sources can actually achieve complementary use. "In the future there will be a variety of fuels, such as ethanol gasoline, diesel oil, LPG liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, etc., all of which are an option." Cao Zhong, chairman of Hangzhou Changjiang Automobile Co., Ltd., said that in the future of vehicle energy, Hydrogen fuel and electricity will coexist and complement each other and jointly support the development of the new energy automotive industry.
Guangzhou Huangpu will have a "hydrogen valley"
Five hydrogen refueling stations built in 2020
At the end of February when the pure electric vehicle “rebuild†was hot, the Guangzhou Huangpu District’s creation of a “Chinese hydrogen valley†triggered widespread concern in the industry. The first single “contract†is the first to enter the Hongji Chuangneng hydrogen fuel cell membrane electrode industrialization project, which makes Guangzhou become the second domestic after Shanghai, has a clear strategy for the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry chain and large-scale layout First-tier cities. Due to the secrecy of the project details, the relevant person in charge of the Hongji Energy-Building Project Group, who was reluctant to say more, responded to a reporter’s question and said: “We plan to join forces with provincial automobile manufacturers to fight for hydrogen that will be able to release its own core technology next year. Fuel cell passenger car." However, Hongji Chuangneng did not disclose which car company it would cooperate with to build a car.
In addition, the reporter noted from the "Guangzhou Development Zone New Energy Comprehensive Utilization Demonstration Zone Planning Plan" provided by the Development and Reform Bureau of Huangpu District that the development zone will also comprehensively deploy the hydrogen energy industrial chain and plans to build five hydrogen refueling stations by 2020. And to invest in a number of commercial fuel cell vehicle demonstration operations, driven by the hydrogen energy demonstration project, gradually gather related companies in all aspects of the hydrogen industry chain, and promote the development of the region's hydrogen energy industry.
Guangzhou is not the first city that has done so much to "Hydrogen." The reporter noticed that prior to this, Guangdong had already launched a hydrogen project. On February 8th this year, the investment agreement of Guangdong Changjiang Automobile's vehicle production and hydrogen-powered R&D center project was formally signed. The project will be completed and put into operation in 2019, with an annual output of 60,000 new energy vehicles; on February 7, Dongfeng Special Commercial Vehicles It announced that it will set up a special hydrogen hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicle South China production base in Yunfu and plans to build a new energy commercial vehicle production line with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and an annual production capacity of 5,000 vehicles. In addition, in the past six months, the planning and layout of the hydrogen energy industry in Shanghai, Beijing, Dalian and other cities have also accelerated.
ã€Language Quotations】
· Guangqi Chuan Yu Jun: “The time for new energy to replace traditional energy sources will be relatively long, and there is huge uncertainty in the middle. Companies should reserve the right to choose their own right. As for the future, which route will be chosen, it should be decided by the market. ."
· Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD Co., Ltd.: “In the coming period, plug-in hybrid vehicles should be the mainstream of global private car development.â€
· Mr. Daisuke Hiroshi, Chairman of Toyota China: “We hope to take a long-term look at the R&D of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and extend the feasibility study to commercial vehicles such as buses and actively explore the possibility of introducing them into China.â€
Kim, vice president of the Hyundai Motor Group's fuel cell team Sae-hoon: "If we can create a perfect autopilot world, computers in vehicles need a lot of energy supply. Therefore we think hydrogen energy can create a more profitable platform."
· Zhang Jinhua, executive vice chairman and secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers: “Hydrogen energy is the bond between multi-energy transmission and fusion, and it is one of the cores of clean low-carbon energy systems in the future. Hydrogen fuel cell technology is becoming a global energy technology revolution. Important directions and important components of countries' future energy strategies."
"Hydrogen" "electric" duel, who is better?
Convenience: "Hydrogen" is better than "Electrical"!
Charging time and battery life are not as good as hydrogen
As we all know, battery technology is one of the biggest technological bottlenecks in current pure electric vehicles. The most deadly weakness of pure electric models is charging time is a few hours, and with current technology, if you want to get more mileage, you need to increase battery capacity, and the vehicle weight and cost will increase substantially. However, hydrogen fuel FVC models will save more. Professor Jianbo Zhang of the Department of Automotive Engineering at Tsinghua University stated that fuel cell vehicles combine the advantages of internal combustion engines and electric vehicles. Hydrogenation is very fast, such as car refueling, 3 to 5 minutes to mess up. Hydrogen fuel cells have a wide range of applicability to vehicles of different sizes and are insensitive to the weather. They are "all-weather athletes" and have farther mileage. From the point of view of driving control, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can get large power instantly and travel very quietly. China's hydrogen energy sources are very extensive and can be independent of foreign resources. This is also the reason why after hydrogen became “electric†in recent years, it became the most compelling source of automotive energy.
Popularization costs: "Power" wins!
Hydrogen station 10 million yuan, fast charging pile 10,000 yuan
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are so good. Why is it that pure electric vehicles are everywhere? As we all know, no matter what kind of models have to solve the problem of convenience of energy refueling. According to data from the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, as of January 2018, the country reported 225,071 public charging piles, which have spread to 31 provinces and cities across the country. According to the information of the National Energy Administration, only 10 hydrogen refueling stations have been built and operated in China.
The number of such disparities is mainly due to construction costs. Regarding the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, the state has given strong support in its policies. Each construction of a hydrogen refueling station has subsidized 4 million yuan, and some local governments also subsidized the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, but they are only “payableâ€. According to the Chinese Academy of Engineering, Yi Baolian disclosed that the current construction of a hydrogen refueling station with a hydrogenation capacity of more than 200 kilograms requires more than 10 million yuan. In contrast, the construction of a slow charging pile for electric vehicles, the price of about 500 ~ 3500; fast charge piles only about 1 million. In addition, the popularization cost of FVC models is difficult to lower temporarily, not only because of the problem of hydrogen refueling stations, but also because of fuel cell research and development, high-pressure hydrogen tank layout costs, and difficulty in hydrogen transportation.
Technology R & D: "Electricity" has matured!
"Electric" scale, "hydrogen" core components are still lacking
From the perspective of R&D technology, these two new energy vehicles have their own advantages. Zhang Jianbo said that the advantages of a pure electric vehicle are its simple structure. If the design is reasonable, it occupies a small space in the vehicle and has a low center of gravity, and the technology is easy to achieve. At present, most of the traditional automobile manufacturers in China have relatively mature and large-scale electric vehicle R&D capabilities. For example, BYD's electric vehicle battery technology is even more advanced in the world.
Wu Gang, Minister of Science and Technology for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles, pointed out that hydrogen fuel cell technology is relatively complex, with the exception of special hydrogen storage tanks, fuel cell reactors, and batteries for energy storage. Although in the end it is also relying on the motor as a power output component. From the perspective of R&D, it is not easy to put such a complicated device into a home car, and the R&D cost, technology, and requirements are even higher. Li Feiqiang, deputy director of the National Electric Vehicle Electronic Control and Safety Engineering Research Center of Yutong Bus, said that the current R&D of hydrogen refueling stations is also a key link. The localization and mass production of key components can greatly reduce the cost of hydrogen refueling stations.
Intelligent energy efficiency: "Hydrogen" won!
Engineer station team "hydrogen"
Some technicians pointed out that the future of the car is the parallelization of electrification and intelligence, which means that to meet unmanned cars, hydrogen energy may be more realistic. The engineer of the Hyundai Motor Fuel Cell Team responded to reporters' questions and said: In terms of driving mileage, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may be more suitable for fully automatic driving technology than pure electric vehicles. In this regard, engineers cited Woongjung, head of the modern driverless car department? Jang's view: Hyundai is developing Class 4 and Class 5 unmanned cars, but so far, due to the extremely advanced automotive data processing system, the vehicles consume a great deal of power and can consume 1 kilowatt or 2 kilowatts. The cruising range of electric vehicles has been greatly reduced. However, Hyundai’s new-generation fuel cell vehicle NEXO needs only five minutes of charging, and can continue to operate for more than 590 kilometers. Its maximum range is 804 kilometers. This figure is much better than all the current pure electric vehicles on the market. The advantages of Hyundai Motors in the field of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have contributed greatly to its ability to increase its competitiveness in driverless technology.
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