Nuclear power safety inspection preliminary conclusion of new project approval threshold increase

According to the "7th China Nuclear Energy International Conference" held on May 12, the special inspection of China's nuclear power security, which was launched in mid-April, is now drawing to a close and a preliminary investigation conclusion has been formed. It is expected that an inspection report will be issued before the end of this month. . Zou Shuliang, member of the National Cooperation Agency's International Cooperation Coordination Committee, said that the relevant departments are currently studying and revising the nuclear power safety plan that has been adopted. After the new project is approved, the threshold may be greatly increased.

A number of industry experts said that in the next decade, China's nuclear power development roadmap has been initially clarified, that is, by 2020, the installed capacity will be no less than 70 million kilowatts, and the market size will exceed one trillion yuan, with AP1000 third-generation nuclear power technology as the mainstream. This scale is consistent with the previous mid- and long-term development plan for nuclear power announced by the Chinese government.

Security design will exceed international standards It is understood that since the State Council executive meeting on March 16 proposed the development of nuclear power "State of the four", the nationwide inspection of nuclear facilities safety began immediately. At the beginning of May, the inspection team led by the National Nuclear Safety Administration completed inspections of nuclear power projects in Shenzhen Daya Bay, Zhejiang Qinshan, and Jiangsu Tianwan, etc. It is currently conducting safety review of the projects under construction and will complete the relevant nuclear power in late May. After inspection by the equipment manufacturer, a final inspection report will be issued.

Zou Shuliang said that the preliminary conclusion of the investigation was that nuclear power plant emergency safety design standards generally met the standard, but most of the units lacked the ability to resist multiple extreme natural disasters. Therefore, he pointed out that at the same time as the nuclear power development plan was promulgated, the relevant departments are stepping up efforts to formulate a nuclear power safety plan, focusing on proposing more stringent standards for the location of new projects and the already operating projects against multiple superimposed disasters. “For example, from the perspective of flood protection, the project requires more than 10 meters above sea level before the site selection, but the nuclear accident caused by the Japanese tsunami warning will raise the future standard to more than 25 meters.” He said that the nuclear power will be strengthened in the future. The functions of regional nuclear safety regulatory agencies under the Security Bureau require companies to establish their own emergency rescue teams.

In this regard, the relevant analysts said that from the current situation, the suspension of domestic nuclear power project approval has not affected the performance of nuclear power operators and downstream equipment manufacturers in the short term, such as the largest domestic nuclear power equipment manufacturer Dongfang Electric (600875) nuclear power orders At present, it still maintains more than 40 billion yuan. However, in the long run, the requirement for a new nuclear power safety plan will inevitably lead to an increase in the threshold for approval of new projects, which means that the future nuclear power projects will be lengthened accordingly from project approval, to early preparation, and to the formal establishment period, which will test the relevant Nuclear power plant and equipment suppliers' capital turnover capacity.

A person of Dongfang Electric's subsidiary Dongfang Heavy Machinery told the China Securities Journal that although the contract orders signed by the company are abundant, it is considered that the future nuclear equipment safety review will become more severe and may directly affect the company’s cash flow.

The five-year "nuclear power cake" exceeds 400 billion yuan. The aftermath of Japan's nuclear accident has gradually levelled. The domestic nuclear power industry is shifting from experience in accidents to planning future blueprints. Xu Yuming, deputy secretary-general of the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, said at the meeting that by 2020, China’s nuclear power capacity of 70 million kilowatts will not be a problem. Zou Shuliang told the China Securities Journal that even if the approval has been suspended, only the nuclear power projects currently under construction and carrying out preparatory work will be able to reach this figure, or even more, after the operation is completed.

Relevant statistics show that there are currently 28 nuclear power units under construction in China, and about 38 nuclear power unit construction projects are under preliminary work. Some analysts have pointed out that according to the calculation of the single-unit capacity of 1 million kilowatts of current mainstream models in China, these units will form an installed capacity of 66 million kilowatts after they are put into production. At present, the average cost of a domestic 1 million-kilowatt unit is about 15 billion yuan, which means that the current market size can be expected to reach trillions of dollars. "And 28 units under construction are scheduled to be put into operation during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The market size will exceed 400 billion yuan in the next five years."

In addition, the "Guidance Catalogue for the Adjustment of Industrial Structures (2011 edition)" promulgated by the National Development and Reform Commission recently proposed that "the construction and technological development of advanced nuclear reactors should be encouraged." In this regard, Zhu Shutang, head of the National Nuclear Power Technology Research Department, pointed out that from the current point of view, the industry generally believes that the AP1000 third generation and higher level of CAP1400 nuclear power technology will be more able to meet the future of China's nuclear power industry development safety and economic requirements, the future Will become the mainstream of market applications.

It is understood that currently some of China's leading nuclear power equipment manufacturers generally possess the complete manufacturing capabilities of the AP1000 third-generation technology. Therefore, equipment manufacturers such as Dongfang Electric and Shanghai Electric (601727) will benefit in the long term.