Global semiconductor market growth rate and global economic growth rate
(Source: SIA, IMF, Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute)
Domestic component industry export growth rate
(Source: China Electronic Components Industry Network, Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute)
The combination of cyclical adjustments in the industry and global economic volatility will continue to slow down the global electronic components industry in 2009. For China's electronic components industry, export deceleration and demand decline have become the main impact forces, coupled with deflation, capacity expansion engine stalls, technological innovation is difficult to break through, industry profits will continue to decline in 2009. Analysts are advised to be cautious about the industry as a whole, paying due attention to possible mergers and acquisitions in the industry, and to grasp the outstanding sub-sectors, leading companies with strong technological innovation capabilities and defensive varieties with strong demand stability.
Two factors drag down the industry
End products in the electronic components industry are characterized by cyclical consumer goods, and their demand is closely linked to economic fluctuations. Demand for global electronics has declined in the third quarter. However, analysts generally believe that in addition to economic reasons, their own cyclical adjustment is also an important factor in the downturn of the industry. The dual factors lead to the time and magnitude of adjustments in this industry is likely to exceed market expectations.
CITIC Jiantou analysts pointed out that the downturn of the electronics manufacturing industry has appeared since mid-2007, and its smooth downward trend shows that this is a long adjustment cycle; the impact of the financial crisis on the real economy has accelerated the recent downward speed of the industry. Guotai Junan analysts also believe that the superposition of cyclical adjustments in the industry and global economic fluctuations will make the global electronics industry face a more complicated situation in 2009. It is difficult to achieve a rebalancing of industrial supply and demand only through the adjustment of the industry's own supply. There is still room for further downswing in the industry. It is expected that this round of industry boom may last for one to two years.
CICC pointed out that compared with the adjustment of the global electronics industry in 2001-2002, the redundant inventory of this industry adjustment was only 40% in 2001, but demand may decline rapidly after a long period of decline, and in 2005, After the global electronics industry has entered the mature period of single-digit growth, the power of technological innovation has weakened, so the adjustment time may still take 2 years. However, analysts also pointed out that considering that the inventory is not large, and countries competing to launch stimulus policies may be reflected in the second half of 2009, the electronics industry is expected to show certain peak season characteristics in the second half of 2009, but not enough to change the economy and industry. Downward trend.
Domestic demand exports are affected
Affected by the global economic crisis, China’s exports of electronic products have slowed down, and domestic demand has also been declining. The weak demand for terminals has a major impact on the domestic electronic components industry.
First, with the further decline of the global economy, the export prospects of domestic electronic products will be bleak. Southwest Securities analysts pointed out that the economic crisis of the global crisis, especially in Europe and the United States, is still deteriorating. For the domestic electronic components industry, which accounts for a large proportion of exports, it is difficult to be independent. Some leading companies have seen a downward trend in the third quarter. Analysts of Great Wall Securities also pointed out that China's component manufacturing enterprises have high dependence on exports. In recent years, the proportion of China's electronic equipment manufacturing products has increased year by year, and three sub-sectors of electro-acoustic devices, PCBs and magnetic materials. In the first half of 2008, the proportion of exports was above 50%. Due to the financial crisis eroding the global real economy, the export of electronic terminal products has declined. The export delivery value of China's electronic information manufacturing industry in January-October was 14.3%, down 5.3% from the second quarter, which will directly affect the upstream components. Industry needs.
Second, the economic crisis will enable domestic residents to reduce the consumption of electronic products. CICC believes that although stimulating domestic demand is the primary task of the Chinese government to stimulate the economy, the consumption prospects in 2009 are not optimistic as most of the electronic products for consumer goods. At present, the growth rate of disposable income of domestic residents has slowed down. In the first three quarters of 2008, the actual growth rate of disposable income of urban residents was only 7.5%, which was lower than 11.9% in 2007 and lower than 8.5% in 2001. At the same time, the stock market and real estate prices continued to slump, and the wealth effect of residents' own assets changed from 2007 to negative in 2008, and it is expected that it will not become positive in 2009. In addition, the downturn in the real estate market has also reduced the demand for new electronic products. According to statistics, the retail sales growth of China's consumer electronics products has begun to fall.
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