Semiconductor lighting is a young industry, both in terms of its rapid growth and its supply chain that is not mature enough. Due to the promising prospects, LED manufacturers all over the world are actively expanding production. According to statistics, the number of newly added MOCVD equipment in the world has reached 500 in 2010. In 2011, the number will be much less. Fiery investment has driven the demand for upstream materials. At present, the industry has issued an early warning that sapphire substrate materials have been in tight supply. There are even rumors that Samsung will take the opportunity to monopolize the LED upstream supporting links to prepare for the future LED industry. How the LED industry develops this game, there are too many blogs to happen. What is the supply and demand situation of the upstream supporting materials of LED chips? What are the reasons for its formation, the impact of the effects, and the solution? How will the LED industry develop in the future? We need your participation, please post your opinion at the end of the text!
1. Status
It is reported that the current sapphire substrate of LED chip has been out of stock, and the price has increased by 20% since the second quarter. It is expected that the supply gap will continue until the end of the year. More news that Samsung Electronics has recently rushed to Taiwan for shortage of goods due to lack of goods, and the Korean factory is mainly based on 4-inch epitaxial wafers. From the current industrial situation, the shortage of LED chips has been extended to the supporting materials level. Will the LED industry repeat itself in the future, and the shortage of polysilicon raw materials in the solar photovoltaic industry two years ago?
2, the reason
The significant expansion of LEDs is considered to be the initiator of the current shortage of sapphire substrates. There are certain reasons for the fineness: Sanan Optoelectronics' investment, Dehaorun's project, Shilanwei's directional issuance, Hong Kong's microcrystalline capital increase, according to the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance and Beijing McKenzie Information Co., Ltd. According to statistics, in 2010, only 200 units of MOCVD equipment will be added to the mainland, plus the number of MOCVDs expanded by manufacturers in Korea and Taiwan. It will indeed have an impact on the immature LED industry supply chain. But apart from that, what are the deeper reasons?
3. Impact
High-growth LED investments have resulted in a shortage of sapphire substrate materials. Its influence will gradually emerge, and the result of the industry is also a few happy ones. The sapphire material factory pointed out that the growing demand for upstream materials has given manufacturers the opportunity to bid farewell to the bad times of the past few years. This year's operation looks good and there will be better opportunities next year. However, the tight supply of upstream materials has also made the market for LED chips, which are in short supply, more confusing.
4, solve
Expansion is undoubtedly the most effective and most direct solution to the problem of “excess demand and insufficient supplyâ€. However, the key technologies of sapphire substrate materials are mostly in the hands of the US and Japan. The technical threshold of LED sapphire crystal rods is high and the yield problem needs to be improved. It takes about six months to nine months to expand the plant. In the short-term situation that cannot change the supply and demand situation, it may be a solution to sign the "long association". However, whether it is a large-scale expansion of the future sapphire substrate or the signing of the "long association", the first basic question to be clarified is "Is there any overheating of LED investment?"
5, the industry perspective
Li Gang, General Manager of Shanghai Lanbao Optoelectronics
There is indeed a shortage of sapphire substrates on the market. The price of sapphire substrates has also risen, with an average increase of about 20%. But I think the main reason for the tight supply of sapphire substrates on the market today is that the market is in a state of early warning. Because there is no company that has stopped hearing production because the sapphire substrate is not available. If, as the media reported, nearly 500 MOCVDs in China are installed, it is certain that there will be a shortage of supply. However, if these capacity can really be opened, it will take at least half a year. So now it is just an expectation of a rapid increase in capacity. After 3 to 5 months, the sapphire substrate will really be out of stock, depending on whether the expected capacity can be opened.
Jiang Zongyong, General Manager of Hangzhou Silan Mingxin
There is indeed a shortage of sapphire substrates on the market. This may happen in the market this year and next. However, I believe that the gap between supply and demand is not too intense. It is still a normal phenomenon and a process in the growth of the industry. The main reason is that there are fewer sapphire substrate companies and insufficient capacity. However, its shortage will naturally drive the expansion of enterprises or new enterprises to participate in this industry, so that supply and demand will reach a balance. Of course, it is also very important for companies to establish stronger partnerships in the upstream and downstream supply chains.
Su Fengzheng, General Manager of Taiwan Longda Electronics
At present, the industry has entered the stage of rushing, and Ronda has negotiated with the upstream suppliers and has carried out certification work with a number of Taiwanese factories. The upstream raw materials are facing a shortage, and the larger the out-of-scale plant, the more materials will be mastered.
CanaccordAdams analyst Dosheimer
The shortage of sapphire is a serious problem. In order to meet the demand of LED, the production capacity of sapphire substrate must be two to three times, but it still depends on the expansion speed of the LED market. In the past seven months, rising demand has pushed up the price of sapphire by 50%. It is expected that no new production lines will start until 2011. As the sapphire substrate industry is still waiting to see if demand growth can continue, it will take one to two years for the capacity to meet demand. In addition, the LED industry requires larger sapphire substrate wafers, which also increases production difficulties.
Rubicon Chief Financial Officer Weisman
The price of sapphire substrates is expected to increase by 15% this year. However, the sapphire substrate only accounts for 8% of the LED wafer material, and should not significantly affect the terminal price of the LED.
LED industry
In the past, due to the large number of manufacturers of sapphire substrate slicing in Taiwan, the market is in an oversupply state, which makes the Taiwan LED factory have advantages. In addition, Taiwanese manufacturers are eager to bargain, and the price of 2-inch epitaxial wafers is the cheapest in the world, but recently Samsung Electronics is out of stock. Next, it also went to Taiwan to grab the goods, and the Korean factory used 4 inch epitaxial wafers as the main production capacity, and the demand for output was large, driving the market price of sapphire substrates to rise. The price of 2-inch epitaxial wafers has increased by 20% in the past two quarters.
news
Qingdao Jiaxing Jingdian Co., Ltd. has officially started production and sales of 2-inch sapphire substrate chips. The LED Sapphire Substrate Project of Qingdao Jiaxing Jingdian Technology Co., Ltd. was put into operation in Qingdao National High-tech Zone on April 8, 2010, with a total investment of 120 million yuan. At present, the company produces 20,000 pieces of 2-inch sapphire chips per month, with a production capacity of 500,000 pieces per year. It plans to expand production capacity to 1.8 million pieces per year within three years.
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