The robot industry is overheated, is it as simple as assembling a mobile phone?

Not long ago, China’s top leader said: We must not only raise the level of robots, but also occupy the market as much as possible. The direction of this sentence is accurate, and at the same time, it represents a great hope for the industry. Therefore, the robot industry is heating up rapidly in China, granting land, granting funds, and building industrial parks. The relevant departments seem to have eaten a huge Viagra, passion. Four shots, all over the world to consult.

The Advanced Motor Center of the University of Florida has a deep feeling about this phenomenon. The person in charge told the reporter that the number of technical consultations received by Chinese companies in recent months has been several times higher than before. Chinese entrepreneurs have always been mad. The reason why they are easy to lose reason is usually two reasons. One is to see others make money, and the other is to talk to the leaders. In essence, it is also a question of money. After all, leadership is basically equivalent to subsidies. It is.

In just two years, there have been more than 400 Chinese robot companies, but few of them can make quality products. More people just buy designs, buy parts, and then assemble robots. This is still a comparison. Formal business. The industry is full of a large number of machine villains. They have sizzled the market but have no technical contribution. They have the meaning of “cheat a subsidy and go”. So, the hot robot market is bound to form a bubble, like group buying. Like the Internet of the 90s, real estate like the 21st century.

When the bubble bursts, the group of small people can move to other industries, and the relevant departments will have new achievements. They never lack money, but the bubble consumes social resources again and again, leaving only a pile of garbage and semi-finished products. Nowhere to put it. Robots are so complex and require technical precipitation, so it's really hard to think about slowing down.

Machine villain: Why does steel become foam?

In fact, people who know a little about the robot industry will know that this is a very complicated field. Even if it is simply assembled, it is 60 times harder than the iPhone6s, let alone those parts with high precision. Nowadays, Chinese companies have used the old way of “making mobile phones”. Everyone imported gears, induction devices and other core accessories from abroad, and then assembled a small machine according to the instructions. But the problem is that the robot is so complicated, the world is still There are not enough mature enterprises to provide robotic turnkey solutions like “MediaTek provides mobile phone chips”, and the demand for machine substitution is not clear, which is very likely to cause the steel of the machine to become a huge bubble, and the wind will blow and collapse. !

Nowadays, the application of robots in the industrial field is concentrated in the automobile manufacturing industry. The rough procedures such as spraying and welding are completed. Some precision assembly is still done by human hands. At present, there are not enough sensitive robotic arms to simulate human nerves. Yuan, the managers of Chinese manufacturing still need to recruit millions of natural people every year to meet production needs.

In addition, service robots are heating up rapidly, such as robot waiters, attitudes and attitudes; entertainment robots, styles, and medical robots, there has never been a contradiction between doctors and patients... These robots seem to be very windy, but specific to the Chinese environment It is still far from meeting the demand for mass production.

What's more, the maturity of home robots is accompanied by the coordinated development of hardware and software, including inductive sensitivity, big data analysis or cloud computing. That is to say, if robots really want to enter the homes of ordinary people, they must not only have steel shells, You also need a soft soul. Therefore, these high-end robots should not exist in the publicity posters of the public's vision. They should stay quietly in the laboratory and grow slowly. They are eager to get rid of the uterus and turn themselves into premature babies. The main purpose is nothing more than making money and catering to political achievements.

The machine villain, the steel becomes a bubble will consume a lot of social vitality, this kind of vitality does not only refer to money, but also includes the cultivation of cutting-edge talents. In fact, once the society is full of quick and quick mentality, few people can do well. basic research. After all, the success of others and the enjoyment of others will easily motivate those who would otherwise be inspirational to take the technical route.

The end result is that everyone is investing, propaganda, and giving speeches, but no one has thoroughly researched the core servers, reducers, etc., resulting in low added value for the entire industry, and can only do some rough work in the future. . If the author has money, it will definitely not make a big effort to build an industrial park with a magnificent atmosphere. Just look for a few simple bungalows that are warm in winter and cool in summer, and pull a wave of people with technical feelings to do research, and save the big-scale construction and publicity. Money pays them wages, so that technical personnel can get enough respect, so that knowledge, patents and experience become the idol of the whole society.

Go slowly, it takes time for the machine to change

There are no robots in China. At best, there are only small robots. To grow up, we must respect the basic laws of the development of things. This is about system, culture and humanity. At present, the Chinese robot industry is already overheating. Although the scale of more than 400 enterprises is magnificent, as mentioned above, these are all bubbles, and the wind will collapse. Experts say that it is enough to leave 4 to 5 high-quality enterprises according to the current demand of Chinese society. Moreover, from the perspective of social harmony, we are not possible, there is no way to achieve a machine substitution strategy in a short time.

In many commentary articles, the author mentioned the cultivation of talents. The development of society must ultimately be attributed to the development of human beings. Without talents, there is nothing, and the ultimate goal of development is to let the people live a good life and human beings are not happy. Any GDP, technology, and indicators are clouds.

As everyone knows, China is a country with a large population, and it is precisely because of this seemingly infinitely cheap labor. It is with this infinite resource that we have the myth of Chinese manufacturing. Now, with the increase in labor costs, some of the leaders have begun to transform and take a machine-changing strategy, but at the same time, they must take into account the employment rate.

It is true that in order to find employment, to deliberately retain low-end manufacturing, this sounds like a paradox, but the national conditions are so, can only slowly digest, and some experts say that the development of robots can provide new jobs, but the problem is that China The vocational education of a generation of workers is generally not high. It is difficult to upgrade from assembly line workers to R&D positions in a short period of time. Machine substitution is too fast, which may lead to a large number of unemployment, which may cause social problems. Perhaps we can only wait for this. Workers are retired, and at the same time, technical training is carried out for a generation of workers.

The most sensible way for China to be a robot is not led by the government or new entrepreneurs, but also by the company. They know the process requirements best, and they know the employment situation. It is the easiest way to grasp the rhythm of machine substitution. The government has given subsidies to those entrepreneurs, and it is better to give some front-end companies the funds for robot development.

After all, the cost of a robot is equivalent to the annual income of 5-6 employees. It is not easy to import smoothly. Perhaps China’s current robot strategy should be replaced by an automation strategy. The first thing we need to do is not machine substitution, but human-machine integration, freeing humans from heavy, boring, monotonous work, giving them time and energy to go. Growing up, this is the right way!