The annual CES show in the United States has been around for 50 years since its inception and has been regarded as the vane of the trend of international electronic products. Many important electronic products have chosen to start at CES, and their influence will increase the attention of the products. The drone became the focus of media attention at CES 2015 and quickly became an emerging industry.
Although the drones at CES this year are no longer the focus of attention in 2015, they still attract many domestic drone manufacturers. They have brought their latest products to try to attract more users' attention. From their participation in the exhibition, or can see the development trend of drones.
The reasons why drone manufacturers are obsessed with the consumer market
Last year, domestic manufacturer Yihang Airlines used its large drone 184 to make a big splash at CES, but this phenomenon is no longer. Almost all of the exhibitors brought more miniaturized products this year, and even professional aerial drones are rare.
Before the show, DJI began to promote the new DJI MAVIC Pro, a miniaturized aerial drone with a PTZ, mainly for the consumer market, and it is also the main force at CES. Zero-Intelligence continues to push the dobby pocket drones that have been on the market for several months, while Zero Infinity brings the hover camera to the drone that was launched at the end of last year. In the true sense of CES, it should be the UFO drone of MOLA. This new "machine" is as its name, the main body is like a flying saucer. After folding, the diameter is about 14 cm and the length of the apple 6S is similar. Nearly 300 grams is slightly heavier than the two apples 6S. The whole is equivalent to a large charging treasure, it is more convenient to carry, and the main one is also self-timer.
Judging from the participation of CES this year, it shows that major manufacturers are planning to seek breakthroughs in the consumer drone market.
For a long time, UAVs have relied on the industry market to survive. For example, Dajiang has determined its dominant position in the field of professional aerial drones. There is no precedent for success in the consumer drone market, but why are many drone manufacturers still clinging to the consumer market? The main reason may be two points:
1. Although the industry market has great potential and rich profits, the requirements for technology and capital are much higher. For example, e-commerce is a market segment that is favored by UAV applications, but in fact few UAV manufacturers directly enter, and the e-commerce giant is basically dominated. Because I understand the specific needs of e-commerce, I know how many technical problems such as short battery life, low-altitude safe flight of UAVs above 7KG, and unmanned aircraft load capacity. However, the current capital and technical strength of UAV companies are relatively Weak.
Compared with the industry market with greater potential, the threshold for entry into the consumer market is much lower. The consumer drones on the market are basically the concept of a flying camera, without having to consider more complicated mechanical controls. The main technical problem lies in the flight control system, and the technical requirements are not as high as in the industry market. There are many open source systems available for reference in the market, which further reduces the technical threshold.
2. Being in the consumer market and aiming at the industry market, this may be the real idea of ​​many UAV manufacturers. Due to the lack of strength, it is still difficult to enter the industry market. Many companies simply prefer to train in the consumer market. First, it is easy to establish a brand in the consumer market and increase market awareness. Secondly, through research and development of consumer-grade drone products, it is also possible to train teams and accumulate relevant technologies to lay a solid foundation for entering the industry market in the future.
Transformation, layoffs, and consumer markets are overvalued
However, the consumer-grade drone market that manufacturers are entering is not a good situation. On the contrary, the news of the transformation and layoffs of many drones makes people feel a chill.
At the CES in 2016, Yihang successfully attracted the attention of the global media with 184 manned drones. Although some people expressed doubts, it did not affect it to win the CES 2016 Best Alternative Product Award and the Fast Company's 2016 Best Innovation Company Award. At that time, Yihang said that it would be commercialized in three to four months, but in fact it has been jumping. At the end of last year, it announced that its B round of financing of 42 million US dollars just three or four months of billion airlines exposed the news of a large layoffs.
Some analysts believe that the reason for the layoffs is that Yihang has not made any progress on 184, but also failed in the consumer market. According to the Xtecher report, the highest shipments of the early billion airlines have reached more than 4,000 units a month, and the performance is acceptable. However, after the product iteration could not keep up with the market rhythm, it was far behind in Xinjiang, causing the shipment to plummet. It is not surprising that the average monthly shipments in the domestic market are only over 100 units.
With the new strategy of the dobby pocket drone, Zero Intelligence has quickly become a newcomer to the drone market, and its market share has climbed to 20%. However, it was also impossible to prevent the layoffs from happening. On the last day of 2016, Zero Intelligence was exposed to the news of the layoffs, and as many as 134 people were laid off. Although the CEO Yang Jianjun explained that the number of personnel has increased beyond the management capacity, in the end, the market sales are not as expected, and the funds are tight.
The market forecast report of several research institutions believes that the domestic consumer-grade UAV market will reach 30 billion yuan in the next three years. However, from the current status quo, the consumer drone market may be overvalued. The consumer market faces three major bottlenecks, making it difficult to break the market in the short term:
First of all, the use of consumer drones is too singular, not just for most consumers. Although drone manufacturers list travel, sports, parties, etc. as usage scenarios during advertising, they are in fact limited to outdoor venues. In the daily life of domestic consumers, outdoor is a very rare scene. In addition to the special nature of drones, some large cities have implemented regulations, which has reduced the use of consumer drones. More deadly, these big cities are precisely the most promising regional markets for consumer drones.
Second, the price has not really broken through the bottom line of users' psychological expectations. At present, the consumer-grade UAV has dropped to less than 3,000 yuan, which is equivalent to the price of a mid-range mobile phone, and the surface does not look high. However, due to the limited use of the scene, the cost of single use is too high, so consumers do not think that spending 3,000 yuan to buy drones is valuable to them. At present, the market situation of consumer-grade drones is similar to that before the popularization of smartphones. Excessive prices hinder the market.
Again, the current consumer experience of consumer drones is poor. In order to make the size small, the consumer-grade drone can only sacrifice some performances such as battery life and stability, and the battery life is too short to make the user most dissatisfied. Consumer drones typically last only about 20-25 minutes, while portable products are as low as 10 minutes. For example, the dobby pocket drone has a nominal flight time of 7 minutes, but the actual flight time is only 4 or 5 minutes. According to the manufacturer's scene, can you imagine that you have to carry the drone's embarrassment when you go out for a morning run?
Three key words in the drone consumer market breakthrough
However, although the UAV consumer market is now limited in size, it does not mean that there is no opportunity in the future. Under the premise that the industry market is still difficult to start, the drone manufacturers will be the right choice for the consumer market. However, the consumer market must be able to spread to consumers after solving the three major problems of miniaturization, intelligence, and people-friendly.
1, miniaturization: portable is the last word
Once upon a time, the mobile phone industry once pursued a thin and dexterous point of sale, gradually evolved from a large brick to a few millimeters of ultra-thin. Looking back now, the pursuit of lightness and dexterity was actually for portability. The same is true for drones, where professional settings are designed to pursue higher standards of performance and commercial value, and users are willing to pay a heavier price. But for personal entertainment consumption, the vast majority of users are willing to choose portable and sacrifice some features or quality. Consumer-grade drones will continue to move toward miniaturization in the future, just like the development of mobile phones.
The dobby pocket drone opened up a brand new market because of its pioneering miniaturization. Some users even excitedly commented that there is finally a drone that can be put into a backpack. The new UFO released by CES on the CLA is slightly larger in size and weight, but it can also be easily put into the backpack. In terms of personal feeling, after folding, the volume is no more than half a 14-inch notebook, and the weight is less than 400 grams, and its portability is acceptable. Of course, on the basis of ensuring performance, the smaller the product, the more popular the user is.
2, intelligent: easier to operate, more feature-rich
If miniaturization is a stepping stone for consumer drones, then intelligence is the magic weapon to keep the user experience. Currently limited to technology, some products sacrifice some functions in miniaturization, resulting in a decline in user experience and even affect word of mouth and subsequent sales. How to maintain the performance of the product without declining or even synchronous development while miniaturization is the key to the large-scale popularization of consumer-grade drones.
In the future, with the advancement of key technologies such as batteries and flight control, the level of intelligence of consumer-grade drones will become higher and higher. In fact, from the perspective of several portable products currently released, this trend is also obvious. The dobby pocket drone is an icebreaker. Although the flight performance is excellent, there are some shortcomings in image stability and battery life. Later, the hover camera has been upgraded, especially in image processing. The lack of GPS features itself greatly limits the use of the scene; the newly released modular UFO function goes further, even with the addition of intelligent flight mode, image recognition and other features of more than 4,000 yuan. In short, the future operation of consumer-grade drones is simpler and more powerful.
3. People-friendly: The price is once again tested, breaking the popularity of the market
Why dodobby pocket drones can be a hit in crowdfunding, in addition to the miniaturization strategy to achieve portability, another factor is that the price is relatively close to the people. Its crowdfunding price is mainly 1799 yuan, and the price of drones is less than 2,000 yuan in one fell swoop, thus attracting many users. Dobby pocket drones sell nearly 10,000 units. However, after the listing, sales were not satisfactory. The Tmall flagship store sold more than 2,400 units in total, far less popular than crowdfunding. The most important reason is that the price after the official listing is 2399 yuan, and the price increase exceeds the consumer's psychological expectations.
Consumer market expects thousands of yuan to break the ice
In the same year, Xiaomi cut into the smart phone market with a thousand yuan machine, and promoted the smart phone as a personal communication tool to enter the stage of mass consumption. Previously, the cheap and practical function machine was the mainstream product of the masses, and the application-rich smartphone was regarded as non-need to consume. Similarly, the consumer drone market wants to really grow bigger, and there is an urgent need for a low-cost, powerful thousand-killer product to detonate.
The current industrial chain of drones is still not perfect. From research and development to prototype, mold opening and mass production, manufacturers have to be personally involved, making it difficult for the cost to drop rapidly in the short term. Even the millet, once known as the price killer, was unable to reduce costs after entering the drone market, and did not surprise users from the product to the price. Therefore, it is not realistic to expect outsiders to spoil the consumer drone market, and ultimately depends on the performance of existing manufacturers.
Thousands of UAVs test the comprehensive strength of the manufacturer, and only companies with the same technology, capital and supply chain strength can do it. Looking at domestic drone manufacturers, manufacturers with independent flight control technology and motor ESC core components have DJI, zero-degree intelligence control and die-drawing. In the production process, only DJI and MOLA Mula have a large voice. The former is because the brand and the order quantity have an advantage to affect the foundry, and the latter is a rare drone manufacturer with its own factory. Other manufacturers rely on foundries, and production time and costs are difficult to control.
Due to the advantages of Dajiang in the professional aerial photography market, there are concerns about the struggle of its own product line, and its power to launch low-cost portable drones is insufficient. If it is really expected to launch a thousand yuan machine to shake the market, it should still be the main manufacturer of portable drones.
The price of the dobby pocket drone is 2399 yuan, UFO has not announced the price, but it is rumored to be comparable to dobby, and the hover camera is priced at 3,999 yuan. The latter's price is higher, and it is obviously unlikely to be a pioneer in the thousand yuan machine. In contrast, the price of the dobby pocket drone and UFO is relatively close to the people. If you can achieve 100,000 units of mass production on this basis, then it is hopeful that the price will be reduced to less than 1,500 yuan, attracting more users. s concern.
With the improvement of the industrial chain and the emergence of universal components, even the entry-level portable drones of around 1,000 yuan will appear in the future, and the door of the consumer-grade drone market will truly open, becoming the standard product for consumers to take pictures outdoors. Of course, this may take two to three years, waiting for advances in hardware technologies such as chips, sensors, cameras, and batteries.
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