FDD 4G license, another night pot, just a dream!

Under supervision, expectation, expected FDD

FDD full name Frequency Division Duplexing, Chinese translation for frequency division duplex, known as the world's most mainstream and most mature 4G LTE communications standards, this issue is targeted at China Unicom and China Telecom, which also means that the next two will mainly develop FDD networks. In fact, as early as June 27 last year, the two operators had already obtained the licenses for the domestic FDD-LTE and TD-LTE hybrid networking (ie trial network licenses), and conducted the first batch of FDD+TD hybrid networking trials. . Until the official issuance yesterday, presumably it was an inevitable move of the government regulators to review the macroeconomic control of the situation, and it was also given multiple missions and placed various expectations.

1. Stimulate the economy, stimulate investment, and activate information consumption. The economic data for January 2015 was clearly a dangerous sign. The manufacturing PMI index was 49.8%, which was the lowest in 28 months since September 2012. Residents’ willingness to consume has also continued to decline. Coupled with the downturn in real estate, transportation and communications, tobacco, alcohol, and supplies have also fallen by 2.2% and 0.4% respectively. The national economy is no longer proud. Experience shows that the process of China's telecommunications industry is closely related to China's economic cycle. For example, in the 2008 economic downturn, 3G licenses were ushered in. At this time, FDD is undoubtedly one of the best stimulus cards. Through 4G construction, it will drive upstream and downstream investment in the entire industry, stimulate national production and consumption, and make information consumption a new driving force in economic growth.

2. To promote a healthy game among telecom operators and create a catfish effect. The decline in telecommunication prices in January was mainly due to excess bandwidth, telecommunications operators over-competitively, and the price of telecommunications tariffs dropped by 10% per annum over the past 10 years. Excessive competition will inevitably lead to lower profits, chaotic industry order, and the final bill is still ordinary consumers. In the competition among operators, China Mobile is the only one to be shaken, and the 4G era has already taken full advantage. At this time, FDD naturally became the life-saving straw for China Unicom's China Telecom, and it became a new weapon for fighting 4G again, stimulating healthy competition among operators. It also reminded China Mobile to stay awake and have enemies behind it to maintain the basic competitive order of the market economy. , Let operators sort there is room for imagination.

3, to stimulate domestic demand, driven by 4G replacement surge, adding more horsepower to smart phones. In recent years, mobile smart terminals have developed rapidly, especially with the growth of smart phones. However, the strong growth momentum entered into 2014 began to slow down, and when the replacement wave wanes, 4G will become the most important reason for the replacement of consumers, and it is also a key factor in whether domestic smart phone shipments can continue the high growth trend of last year. Foreign brands continue to make efforts, the existing domestic mobile phone brands will use the operator's dividends and local advantages to win the pursuit, the new competing brands LeTV, Blue Devils, 360 and other high-profile entry, 4G will certainly become the major manufacturers competing to occupy a breakthrough and flashpoint.

It seems that the FDD that is good for the time and place is carrying multiple expectations. At this time, it is undoubtedly that the regulators have been thoroughly thought out and are in line with most people's expectations of market stimulus. The timing is exactly what one would expect. But will it be easy to complete the mission? Things may not be so simple.

It's just a night pot. It's also a dream. It's not just a need.

1, the market regulation of another chamber pot. It is undeniable that the release of new 4G licenses will be beneficial to the operating industry and its upstream and downstream companies under the condition that the cost of social financing will be reduced. However, there is some hope that an FDD license can save the economic growth. Difficulties with people, China’s slow economic growth is a historical trend, and it is also a systematic project. The rapid development of the previous decades benefited from the low-cost manufacturing industry. However, the problem of overcapacity in the manufacturing industry has become increasingly prominent and cannot be saved by itself. Telecom is at best such as The real estate that year boosted economic growth but could not determine economic growth. Ren Zhiqiang once fired a gun. "Real estate is like a night pot. When it is used, it pops up." The 4G network represented by FDD is at most the next chamber pot. The quality is good and bad, and the pace of development will not determine the "sweetness" of the Chinese economy.

2. The operator's pattern has been fixed and FDD is difficult to fight fire heroes. If the data shows that China Mobile’s 4G subscribers approach 100 million, and 3G subscribers reach 336 million, China Unicom’s cumulative number of its 3G and 4G subscribers as of December 2014 totaled 149 million. China Telecom only officially stated that it will develop 100 million telecommunications 4G subscribers this year. It is clear that mobile 4G has basically taken shape. Regardless of whether it is technology, policy, or industrial chain, a single big situation and trend have become more and more intense, and the industry structure has also been established. Although China Unicom has already obtained a TD-LTE license, the issuance of FDD licenses can also officially release all the strengths of China Unicom and Telecommunications to promote 4G. However, from the perspective of its own network evolution, resources, and other actual conditions, even full-scale pursuit is a tough end. In addition to the network itself, the operator PK another contract is the contract machine, China Mobile in recent years in conjunction with Apple, Samsung did not fill the star-type short board, China Unicom iPhone and other high-end models have no advantage, China Telecom itself is Disadvantages. Therefore, unless China Mobile breaks its arms, rests and feels worse and worse, there are not many opportunities left for China Unicom and there is little room for imagination.

3, 4G pulling is not just a consumer need, price is still king. The reason why consumers use 4G as a replacement is nothing more than a suspicion that the 3G and 2.5G networks are slow and the Internet is unhappy. Although the theoretical FDD speed is more than TD-LTE, (China Unicom's FDD4G peak speed is 150Mbps, mobile TD-LTE4G peak speed is 100Mbps), but the actual environment is also affected by base stations, signals, time, load, etc. Many factors influence, that is to say, there is no guarantee that FDD's 4G will be faster than TD-LTE4G anytime and anywhere. At the same time, as the number of users increases, the speed of the network gradually loses its initial sensation, especially in the occasion where people gather, and network congestion often occurs, even worse than 3G networks. In the end, it is the price that determines the choice of the consumer. Everyone still needs to use the Internet with cheaper online services. However, the current carrier tariffs of the three operators are still high, even if the flexible package Unicom 1GB/month traffic also 48 yuan, in addition, the 4G era of rapid increase in user traffic consumption has also become fast, the user is also cool while still Carefully guard against "thunder" and beware of accidentally falling into the pit. It feels like this, duang has to look at it completely.

In short, the FDD4G camera release for the public is more of a dream, and it has to face the reality after waking up.