As one of the first countries to deploy new energy vehicles, China has always attached great importance to the sustainable development of society and the environment, and has used strong and sustained policies to accelerate the full development and development of the hydrogen fuel cell industry. “The new energy vehicles are expected to leap forward after 2020, which is a qualitative expansion.†Xu Changming, deputy director of the National Information Center, put forward the “5th China-Korea Automotive Industry Development Seminar†on November 2 this year.
The Fifth China-Korea Automobile Industry Development Seminar with the theme of "Future Automobile" continues the previous four high-level specifications and professionalism. The seminar will be attended by leading experts in the automotive industry in China and South Korea, focusing on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. For the representative of the new energy vehicles, intelligent vehicle networking and automatic driving technology, launched a deep exchange and discussion.
At the meeting, Xu Changming predicted that the total size of China's future auto market will grow by another 50% on an existing basis. The algorithm is very simple, that is, there is a mathematical relationship between the quantity of ownership and the amount of sales that reaches the peak. The amount of possession divided by the period of retirement is the amount of sales. According to an average of 15 years of scrapped cars, the amount of ownership divided by 15, is almost the peak sales volume. If you consider the purchase restriction factor, the number of Chinese thousand people should be about 400 cars, multiplying by nearly 1.5 billion people, and the car ownership will be 600 million cars in the future. Dividing by 15 years of retirement, the sales volume is 40 million, which is more than now. Increased by 50%.
With such a huge car market, new energy vehicles will occupy an important position. Xu Changming judged that new energy vehicles will leap forward after 2020 and be a qualitative expansion. Xu Changming analyzed that huge consumer demand for automobiles determines that China must vigorously develop new energy vehicles. There are various considerations in the development of new energy vehicles. The Ministry of Science and Technology wants to realize the overtaking of corners of its own brands. Therefore, the formulation of new energy automobile policies is the time when the sales of independent brands enter the low tide. From 2011 to 2014, the self-owned brands were squeezed by the joint ventures quickly. Everyone has no confidence in the traditional cars catching up with international brands. The solution is to overtake the corners of new energy vehicles. Others must consider how to solve environmental pollution and dependence on oil.
In order to encourage the development of new energy vehicles, the government has introduced a subsidy policy, a purchase restriction policy, and a double-credit policy. For new energy vehicles, the Chinese government gives high subsidies. Last year, a car could make up more than 90,000 yuan. This year has declined, but gradually fades out. However, the purchase restriction policy still strongly supports new energy vehicles. Taking Beijing as an example, the percentage of successful purchases of traditional fuel vehicles is approximately 800:1, while new energy vehicles are basically applied for this year, and almost the next year will be able to obtain the target. Coupled with direct interventions in the areas of buses and logistics vehicles, Xu Changming predicts that it can almost drive the sales of 1 million new energy vehicles. The rest will depend on the situation of the double-integration policy. The core principle of the double-integration policy is to allow enterprises that produce traditional fuel vehicles to save money to support the development of new energy vehicles. The policy supports enterprises to produce new energy vehicles, but it is not possible to produce them, but they must pay for them. From the government to save money subsidies to the auto companies to save money, the latter is much more powerful than the former.
Xu Changming also believes that after 2020, although the subsidy policy will fade out, with the introduction of the double-integration policy, the factors driving the market will increase. The current market for new energy vehicles is a policy-driven market. By 2025, it will become a market-driven market. This is the most effective method.
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