After the earthquake in Japan, nuclear power in the world to give up a huge power "cake", which makes the photovoltaic market has been warming recently. However, a research report recently published by Solarbuzz, a world-renowned solar energy industry research institute, may lead to a dramatic "cooling down" in the market. Solarbuzz's latest annual PV Market Report 2011 MarketBuzz estimates that the ex-factory prices of PV modules will fall by 37%-50% over the next five years.
Coincidentally, in February of this year, Dr. I was the chief industry analyst of IHSiSuppli, a world-renowned photovoltaic industry research consultancy. Henning Wicht stated in Shanghai that the current average price of polysilicon components has been declining. The average price of components in the first half of 2011 is expected to decline by about 9%.
Overcapacity and Subsidy Reduction Challenges the Industry “In short, PV modules are PV power plants that convert solar energy directly into DC power. Its components include cells, backplanes, glass, ribbons, photovoltaics, and junction boxes. Solarbuzz's judgment on the declining trend of PV module prices is considered accurate. As for whether or not it will decline by 37%-50%, it is only time to judge.†Li Shengmao, senior researcher of China Investment Advisors, said yesterday to the Southern Reporter.
Why is Solarbuzz so pessimistic about the future price of PV modules? Its general manager, Craig Stevens, said: "In the major European markets, the photovoltaic industry is currently entering a policy tightening phase, and the rate of subsidy cuts is much greater than the rate of cost reductions. In the next two years when some important markets shrink, the United States The major regions of Canada, Canada, China, and Japan still have growth potential. In addition, although the pre-reduction of the subsidies policy before mid-year will lead to strong demand from Italy and Germany in the first half of 2011, the capacity expansion of battery makers will also increase. The supply will be sufficient from 2011 to 2012, but the combination of potential excess capacity and the reduction of subsidies will be a challenge to the entire industry."
"Crazy polysilicon" may not be reproduced. "For China, the photovoltaic module market starts soon in the country and there is great potential for follow-up development, but with the release of production capacity and policy changes, the polysilicon and its downstream photovoltaic components in the photovoltaic market in the next five years There will be a sharp drop in prices," said Li Shengmao, a senior research fellow at China Investment Institute, who told reporters from the South.
He believes that the main reasons include three aspects: First, the European photovoltaic market accounted for 81% of the global market share, with European countries have cut subsidies for photovoltaic power generation, it is expected that in the future, the demand for photovoltaic market in Europe will drop sharply, which will directly weigh on The demand for global PV modules has led to a drop in the prices of PV modules. Second, the global photovoltaic industry entered a year of gold development due to the impact of the global economic recovery, the increase in demand for photovoltaic power generation, and the spurt effect before the reduction of PV subsidies in Europe. While the large-scale development is plaguing the hidden danger of overcapacity, with the continuous release of production capacity this year, it is expected that the PV modules will show a situation of oversupply, and the prices will also drop. Third, the price of polysilicon, the most important raw material for photovoltaic modules, is expected to continue to decline. The rise in polysilicon prices since last year has spawned a large number of enterprises to expand the scale of polysilicon production. It is expected that the polysilicon production capacity will gradually be released this year. The increase will cause its price to drop, “crazy polysilicon†will not be able to reproduce, and its downstream PV module prices will also continue to decline due to lower polysilicon prices.
Li Shengmao suggested that domestic PV module manufacturers should establish a brand, strengthen research and development to cope with price pressures, and use quality to avoid falling into a meager price war. “In the case of limited capacity growth in the European market, more attention should be given to the expanding markets in the United States, Japan, and Southeast Asia. At the same time, making downstream components only makes it easy for companies to be subject to upstream material supply, and should continue to be extended upstream and downstream. Industrial chain, reduce risk and reduce costs.â€
Coincidentally, in February of this year, Dr. I was the chief industry analyst of IHSiSuppli, a world-renowned photovoltaic industry research consultancy. Henning Wicht stated in Shanghai that the current average price of polysilicon components has been declining. The average price of components in the first half of 2011 is expected to decline by about 9%.
Overcapacity and Subsidy Reduction Challenges the Industry “In short, PV modules are PV power plants that convert solar energy directly into DC power. Its components include cells, backplanes, glass, ribbons, photovoltaics, and junction boxes. Solarbuzz's judgment on the declining trend of PV module prices is considered accurate. As for whether or not it will decline by 37%-50%, it is only time to judge.†Li Shengmao, senior researcher of China Investment Advisors, said yesterday to the Southern Reporter.
Why is Solarbuzz so pessimistic about the future price of PV modules? Its general manager, Craig Stevens, said: "In the major European markets, the photovoltaic industry is currently entering a policy tightening phase, and the rate of subsidy cuts is much greater than the rate of cost reductions. In the next two years when some important markets shrink, the United States The major regions of Canada, Canada, China, and Japan still have growth potential. In addition, although the pre-reduction of the subsidies policy before mid-year will lead to strong demand from Italy and Germany in the first half of 2011, the capacity expansion of battery makers will also increase. The supply will be sufficient from 2011 to 2012, but the combination of potential excess capacity and the reduction of subsidies will be a challenge to the entire industry."
"Crazy polysilicon" may not be reproduced. "For China, the photovoltaic module market starts soon in the country and there is great potential for follow-up development, but with the release of production capacity and policy changes, the polysilicon and its downstream photovoltaic components in the photovoltaic market in the next five years There will be a sharp drop in prices," said Li Shengmao, a senior research fellow at China Investment Institute, who told reporters from the South.
He believes that the main reasons include three aspects: First, the European photovoltaic market accounted for 81% of the global market share, with European countries have cut subsidies for photovoltaic power generation, it is expected that in the future, the demand for photovoltaic market in Europe will drop sharply, which will directly weigh on The demand for global PV modules has led to a drop in the prices of PV modules. Second, the global photovoltaic industry entered a year of gold development due to the impact of the global economic recovery, the increase in demand for photovoltaic power generation, and the spurt effect before the reduction of PV subsidies in Europe. While the large-scale development is plaguing the hidden danger of overcapacity, with the continuous release of production capacity this year, it is expected that the PV modules will show a situation of oversupply, and the prices will also drop. Third, the price of polysilicon, the most important raw material for photovoltaic modules, is expected to continue to decline. The rise in polysilicon prices since last year has spawned a large number of enterprises to expand the scale of polysilicon production. It is expected that the polysilicon production capacity will gradually be released this year. The increase will cause its price to drop, “crazy polysilicon†will not be able to reproduce, and its downstream PV module prices will also continue to decline due to lower polysilicon prices.
Li Shengmao suggested that domestic PV module manufacturers should establish a brand, strengthen research and development to cope with price pressures, and use quality to avoid falling into a meager price war. “In the case of limited capacity growth in the European market, more attention should be given to the expanding markets in the United States, Japan, and Southeast Asia. At the same time, making downstream components only makes it easy for companies to be subject to upstream material supply, and should continue to be extended upstream and downstream. Industrial chain, reduce risk and reduce costs.â€
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