The 2018 subsidy implements different policies in three phases, and how new energy car companies respond

The old models are difficult to price, sales of new models are difficult to open, and the current situation of passenger car companies is a bit overwhelming, and all this stems from the 2018 subsidies adjustment policy.

According to the first electric network learned from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, based on the date of licensing of new energy vehicles, it will implement a three-phase subsidy program in 2018, as follows:

2018.1.1-2.11: New energy vehicles on board during the period are executed according to the 2017 subsidy standard (Caijian (2016) No. 958);

2018.2.12-6.11: New energy passenger cars and new energy passenger vehicles on board during the period are executed at 0.7 times the 2017 subsidy standard (Caijian (2016) No. 958). New energy trucks and special vehicles are 0.4 times subsidy, fuel cell vehicle subsidy standard unchanged;

From 2018.6.12 onwards: During the period of the new energy vehicles on the license in accordance with the 2018 standard (2018-18) to implement.

For specific models, this means that in 2018, three different levels of subsidies will be accepted, which will directly affect the profit margin and terminal sales prices of auto products.

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Comparison of Subsidy during Transition Period for New Energy Passenger Cars (Unit: RMB 10,000)

The last impact of the short-lived A00 model

From February 12 to June 11 is the transitional period of the 2018 subsidy adjustment program. From the subsidy for new energy passenger vehicles in different range, the subsidy amount for the models under 250 kilometers during the transition period is higher than June. After 12th, while the models under 250km are basically A00 models, the transitional period can be described as the golden period for the short-term A00 model. After the implementation of the subsidy program in 2018, these short-term models will face zero subsidies or substantially reduced subsidies. .

The BAIC EC series, Zhidou D2, Chery eQ, JAC IEV series, and Changan Benben EV, each with a battery life of about 180 kilometers in 2017, were ranked first, second, fourth, sixth, and eighth in sales of new energy passenger cars, respectively. Annual sales of A00-class passenger vehicles reached 303,000 vehicles, which accounted for 54.5% of the total sales of new-energy passenger vehicles. It can be seen that the A00-class models are popular in 2017, and in the face of the 2018 transition period, these models Where will we go?

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Sales of A00 Passenger Cars in 2017 (Units: Vehicles)

"The 180-kilometre vehicle inventory was cleared, and the pre-sale of the upgraded version of the 251-kilometer battery in 2018 was pre-sale. This is the current situation." A domestic mainstream brand worker responded that due to the large number of competing products in the same period, only the 2017 old model The models were sold and prices remained at the level of last year. This approach is basically a common practice within the industry. Why didn’t the 2018 model be officially sold and select the old one? There are three reasons why the market leader of a mainstream brand says:

First, the old model will last about 180 kilometers. According to the 2018 policy, the subsidies will be greatly reduced, and inventory processing is urgently needed.

Second, although the amount of subsidy for new energy passenger vehicles during the transition period is reduced by 70%, the various technical indicators still maintain the 2017 policy.

Thirdly, it takes a certain period of time to upgrade products according to the technical indicators of the subsidy policy of 2018. In order to avoid market sales vacuum, only 2018 pre-sales of old sales or upgrades can be used.

Although the technical indicators of the old models can be implemented in accordance with the 2017 policy during the transition period, the subsidy is reduced. The maintenance price is the same as 2017, and who will bear the cost difference in the middle? "With the increase in the size of new energy vehicles, battery electronic control in 2018 has already seen significant price cuts, and other parts suppliers can also press prices again, but the reduction in product profits is inevitable." The person in charge said.

According to Zhongtai, Jianghuai, Zhidou and other brand owners, due to the cost difference caused by policy adjustments, vehicle companies assume a ratio of more than 50%, and the rest will need to be shared by the entire industry chain.

From the research situation, companies that sell old models have basically adopted two methods in terms of price: First, maintain stable prices, clear inventory or a small amount of production, or have stopped production; Second, a slight increase, and the floating space remains at 5000 Yuan around. In general, however, no brand implements a clear and long-term pricing policy. Instead, it chooses to adjust it by observing competition marketing.

Upgraded pre-sale price of 6-7 million yuan

According to the pre-sale price of the upgraded products manufactured by manufacturers in 2018, it is basically maintained at the price range of 6-70,000 yuan, but this is not the final sale price of the products. For example, Changan Benben EV260 revealed that the pre-sale price was RMB 69,800, and its listing price on Feb. 28 was RMB 72,800-48,800, and the price increased by RMB 0.3-1.5 million. Even during the pre-sale period, the price of the product is constantly adjusted by the manufacturer. For example, the pre-sale price of Chery's small ant eQ1 on the 24th is 65,800 yuan, and on the 28th it is adjusted to 5.78-6.18. Ten thousand yuan, the final listing price may have new changes.

The reasons for the fluctuating prices of upgraded products are first and foremost due to the large number of competing products in the market. Each brand waits and sees each other with a view to occupying a larger market share at a favorable price. The second is that the subsidy for each locality has not yet been settled, and the price of terminal sales is difficult to unify. If you sell at a lower price, you are very likely to suffer losses. Under the pressure of further reduction of the subsidy amount, the company's cautious attitude is even more unusual.

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Some A00 products are sold in 2017

“Jianghuai does not have a wait-and-see attitude towards the market. We believe that products should be guided by market demand and not based solely on policies.” Wang Guangyu, general manager of Jianghuai New Energy Marketing Co., Ltd. introduced that JAC took a product line different from other brands, and at the beginning of the product The upgrade has been completed. Even in the transition period that is not conducive to high endurance products, new products will be launched one after another. For example, the JAC iEVA50 with an integrated cruising range of 330km/400km will be launched in March. Wang Guangyu also predicted that due to series of procedures such as product upgrades and production cycles, application for new car announcements and recommended catalogues, it is highly probable that its high endurance products will be officially sold after June.

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Future product trends are high-endurance, SUV, and large-scale

"I think the future trend of new energy products is high-endurance, SUV, and large-scale." Chery's new energy market minister, Lu Huaping, said that the first large-scale, high-endurance products are not only policy guidance, but also market trends, miniaturization. A00 products are actually not sold to the private market, and the A00-class products that are shared by time-of-use leases are larger. This is also the reason why they predict that the market share of A00 products will not be significantly reduced in 2018 and beyond. The time-shared leasing market will tend to have a lower-cost A00 product. In addition, Yi Fang, the brand director of Zhidou, believes that for the new energy market in 2018, product life is higher than 250 kilometers is one of the major trends.

The second trend in the new energy automotive market is SUVs. This is because the strong sales characteristics of new energy SUVs are very obvious. In terms of market sales, there are no SUV models on the market in 2015. In 2016, the sales of new energy SUV models accounted for about 2%. In 2017, it broke 5% to 5.4%. In contrast, the traditional car market can clearly see that SUVs are more popular among consumers. Chery's 3xe, which will be listed at the end of March, is a new energy SUV model. Chery New Energy currently reveals the only new 2018 new energy products.

Summary: According to the feedback from various brand manufacturers, during the transition period, most of the old products were sold in 2017, and Changan, Jianghuai and other companies also sold upgraded products during the transition period. The old products basically maintained 2017 prices, slightly increased, and upgraded products. In order to prevent the market sales vacuum on June 12th, all manufacturers will upgrade their products in accordance with 2018 during the transitional period. Due to re-product verification checks and entry into the recommended catalogues, the market sales vacuum period may be difficult to avoid; Manufacturers reached a consensus on high product life and large-scale product trends.

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