At present, China's capital market has shown an extremely active situation in the face of weak overseas capital markets and global financing difficulties. The data shows that as of the end of 2016, there were 244 listed companies in the A-share security business, and more than 200 security-related companies in the New Third Board. Due to the positive market, it attracted many investors. In the first quarter of 2017, the listed companies in the above-mentioned security sector exceeded the 70% net profit growth rate by more than 10%.
The past 2017 is a very hot year for AI, and artificial intelligence has become the hottest technology vocabulary in 2017. At present, the application hotspots of artificial intelligence in China mainly focus on the fields of computer vision, speech recognition and natural language understanding. With the huge video surveillance resources accumulated through the construction of “Safe City†in the past ten years, computer vision technology naturally has a clear and fast landing application scenario. Therefore, security will be the industry's fastest industrialization, marketization and competition in artificial intelligence.
This paper attempts to analyze the change trend of the third security ten-year cycle in the era of artificial intelligence from the ten-cycle law of the past security industry, and the impact of artificial intelligence on the market competition pattern of the security industry, for the reference of peers.
First, the ten-year cycle law reappears, the security industry will usher in a great change in the era of artificial intelligence
Looking back on the development history of the domestic security monitoring industry in the past 20 years, we found that the development of the security industry and the law of social and economic development are very similar, basically a decade as a cycle law. In the mid-1990s, the domestic security market started, and the first cycle was in 2006. In this cycle, the technology is represented by analog technology. The products are mainly dominated by analog surveillance products such as black and white/color cameras, video tape recorders, multi-screen splitters, video matrices, monitors, etc. Mintong, Panasonic, Sony, Samsung, Anxun, PELCO, AD and other security brands in Taiwan and overseas; from 2006, it has entered the era represented by digital video surveillance technology, with hard disk recorders and video coding Digital surveillance products such as IP cameras, HD cameras, and network video storage are leading, while the protagonists of the market are replaced by domestic brands such as Haikang, Dahua, and Yushi, relying on the opportunities of change in the digital age and “Safe Cityâ€. The wave of construction, the domestic security market and the security industry have developed rapidly, resulting in many heavyweight listed companies, and some have become world-class security giants. Also in this cycle of change, the influence of the original foreign big names in the domestic security market has gradually declined, and even disappeared. By the end of 2016, the traditional “safe city†construction is coming to an end, and the homogenization of technology and products has become very serious. Price competition has become the most effective competition strategy among domestic security giants, which indicates the second ten. The end of the annual cycle.
The advent of deep learning and artificial intelligence has opened the third decade of the security industry, and 2017 has naturally become the first year of the third cycle of change. The first decade is the era of analog surveillance, the second decade is the era of digital and high-definition surveillance, and the third decade is undoubtedly the era of artificial intelligence.
Second, the analysis of market change trends in the third decade
From the changes in the first two decades, we have found that changes in technology and products will bring about huge changes in market demand and competition.
The first change in the security industry has transformed from analog to digital technology and products. Only technology upgrades in transmission and storage have brought about huge market demand for “safe city†construction and re-washing of market competition. The cards, the once-in-a-lifetime world-class security industry giants, have almost completely lost in this round of non-subversive technology upgrades, and they have no choice but to let the industry status and the market hand over the latecomers they once dismissed. Then the technological change led by this artificial intelligence will inevitably bring more and even subversive changes to the market demand and competition pattern.
1. Market demand will be redefined
In the last ten-year cycle, the application requirements of the security surveillance market mainly focused on the three levels of “clear, well-received, and transmittedâ€, defining requirements with “informationâ€, focusing on information (digital video) acquisition, transmission, and Storage, upgrade and optimize from three aspects: image quality, monitoring points and transmission network. With the application of artificial intelligence technology, the demand will be developed around "can query, can analyze, predict", define requirements with "data", and focus on data (personal, vehicle, human body and other video structured data) collection and large Data analysis, research and risk warning. Security monitoring will move from an informational and digital era to a data age, in order to truly be able to embrace and embrace the arrival of the era of security big data.
The most obvious of these is the demand for public data big data applications. In the past few years, under the influence of Internet companies, local public security organs have built so-called public security big data platforms, personal identity information, hotel registration data, vehicle bayonet data controlled by public security organs, and from Internet companies and mobile operators. The data obtained by banks and other parties are aggregated and analyzed to provide more extensive data support for the public security organs to accurately attack illegal and criminal acts. However, due to the uncertainty of data sources, the validity of data, the authenticity of the data itself and the non-real-time nature of data acquisition, the so-called big data platform is difficult to achieve the expected results. Large-scale application of artificial intelligence technologies such as face recognition, face recognition, video structuring, etc., to a large extent fill the gap of effective data sources, making public security big data applications no longer "passive water", "no rice" ".
2, the market size will be greatly increased
In the second half of the last decade, the growth rate of the security monitoring market has slowed down year by year. In 2012, the security monitoring market grew by about 30% compared with 2011, and by 2106, the growth rate was less than 20% compared with 2015. The decline is due to the lack of technological change and the need for new applications. The arrival of the era of artificial intelligence will not only release a large number of unmet market demands, but also bring more and more abundant new application demand scenarios, and the market scale will be greatly increased. It is estimated that by 2022, the compound growth rate of the artificial intelligence security market will reach 40%-50%.
In addition to the algorithm hardware, software, and big data platforms that artificial intelligence itself requires, the use of surveillance images, scenarios, installation locations, installation heights, installation angles, and device metrics under artificial intelligence technology applications will be redefined. The system will be remodeled to accommodate the needs of artificial intelligence and big data applications. In addition, some places and areas that are not valued are the best collection control points under artificial intelligence and big data systems, such as the entrances and exits of communities, banks, bars, hotels, bathing centers, supermarkets, parking lots, etc. Have to redistribute. Some areas where monitoring equipment is already installed require additional light-filling facilities. Some ordinary cameras are replaced with ultra-low-light cameras or cameras with some front-end intelligence, which will bring great market opportunities to the entire industry.
The application of face recognition technology will bring a revolutionary change to the card and access control industry. The original access control and card mainly rely on RFID technology, and there are drawbacks such as easy to lose, easy to forge, and need to be produced separately. These are precisely face recognition. Technical advantage. Therefore, face recognition will replace the original RFID technology on a large scale, and the original system needs large-scale upgrade and transformation, which brings a large market space.
3. The market competition pattern faces the opportunity of reshuffle
Artificial intelligence and traditional security have fundamental differences in technology categories, and artificial intelligence has a high threshold in technology accumulation, enabling artificial intelligence start-ups to reinterpret the security industry and gain a tradition with a new starting point and height. The security giants have a chance to compete. In view of the huge market volume temptation in the security industry, it will inevitably attract more non-traditional security industry enterprises to use the artificial intelligence to break into the security circle that has become the three countries, and reconstruct the competitive landscape of the security industry.
4, will rebuild a good security ecosystem
The past ten years have been a decade of rapid development of the domestic security industry, and a decade of monopolization from a hundred flowers to a few industry giants. A good industry and industry ecology is an essential foundation for industrial innovation creation and sustainable development. However, a few industry giants have used their advantages in market channels and costs to form an oligopoly position, which has greatly damaged the industrial ecology and stifled the creativity of industrial technology innovation, which is extremely detrimental to the sustainable development of the security industry. The arrival of the era of artificial intelligence has not only shaken the monopoly of these giants, but also made it possible to reconstruct a healthy industrial ecology. At the same time, the industrial chain of artificial intelligence is relatively long, involving basic algorithm models, basic hardware, basic products, and industries. From application, scenario application, solution to application delivery, it is natural to have a division of labor between different links to create a complete industry chain.
Third, the analysis of the competitive situation of the security industry in the era of artificial intelligence
As mentioned above, in the era of artificial intelligence, the security market competition pattern will face an opportunity to reshuffle. In addition to traditional security companies, there are also Internet companies such as Baidu, Huawei and other network communication equipment manufacturers, as well as entrepreneurial teams specializing in artificial intelligence technology research, such as Yitu, Defiance, Shangtang, etc. Security industry. What are the competitive advantages and disadvantages of these competitors, and what will they be in the future market structure?
The industry generally believes that the competition of artificial intelligence at the technical level is determined by three elements: algorithm, computing power and data resources. The algorithm is the core, especially the completely independent deep learning original algorithm, which determines how far the team can go, whether it has Continue to lead. Secondly, it is computational power, including two levels: First, whether it has a powerful deep learning computing platform, which determines the speed of iterative algorithm model learning using deep learning; Second, the adaptability of algorithm model and hardware, under the same hardware conditions The computing power determines the stability of the product and the availability of large-scale deployment and operating costs; then the data source used for algorithm model training also determines the speed of the algorithm model iteration.
At present, there are only a handful of enterprises or teams in China that have mastered the original techniques of deep learning. Most of them use open source algorithms or some technologies brought back from abroad to carry out targeted model training, while more are not doing any algorithm models themselves. Take the SDK provided by a third party for product packaging. Therefore, on the technical level, the professional artificial intelligence algorithm team will have more advantages. Although it is still unable to understand the security industry's routines in a short period of time, it cannot immediately adapt to the security market, but with the accuracy of the market users. The requirements for computing power are becoming more and more demanding, and the advantages of the latter will become more and more obvious. Some people will say that the essence of deep learning is data. Whoever masters the data resources will lead in the future, but the data ownership of the security industry is the owner, neither the operator nor the integrator, nor the product vendor. of. Moreover, the data is only material, there is no processing ability for the data, and having more data will not produce a good algorithm model. Nowadays, some algorithmic teams have reached a thousand neural networks, and they have huge supercomputing platforms. These technical advantages are not beyond short-term.
In the market competition, in addition to technical competition, there are factors such as brand awareness, market sales channels, on-site technical services and project delivery. At this level of competition, traditional security companies have obvious advantages, which are unmatched by Internet companies and professional artificial intelligence companies. They have a good user relationship, easier to understand the user's ideas, easier to instill their own products and ideas, and have a strong project landing ability. For users, it is often impossible to distinguish the difference between artificial intelligence and monitoring. Simply think that it is just an upgraded version of traditional security monitoring, and feel that it is more convenient for traditional security companies to do more.
Another more important competitive advantage of traditional security companies is the hardware and platform capabilities of the products, especially the advantages of front-end products such as cameras. The artificial intelligence algorithm is quickly moved forward to the camera. However, because the existing algorithms are far from satisfying the needs of users, and can not support more and more demanding application requirements and complex application scenarios, the face recognition algorithm model needs constant iteration and optimization, even in the future. Breakthrough is possible, the algorithm that is now solidified in the front end cannot be iteratively upgraded, and it will inevitably be eliminated in the future, which is also the price of “craving crabâ€. Although edge computing + cloud computing is an inevitable trend in the future development of artificial intelligence, when the algorithm is far from being fully mature, barely curing and marginalization is only an initial attempt. At present, the professional artificial intelligence algorithm team has also deeply realized the importance of edge computing in the future, and is also developing and producing front-end artificial intelligence cameras or providing front-end algorithms, even actively deploying AI-specific chips in order to occupy in the future competition. Favorable position.
In the future market competition, traditional security enterprises will rely on their “land power†to take the lead and put forward some preliminary pilot projects, thus achieving the effect of education and training market, laying a good market foundation for artificial intelligence in the comprehensive development of security industry. This is also the contribution of the benefit of the last decade of the security industry to the next decade of the security industry. With the continuous enrichment of application scenarios and the ever-changing needs of users, the market expects the artificial intelligence to continuously improve, the advantages of algorithm companies will be more fully exerted, through the construction of cooperative and win-win artificial intelligence + security ecological chain or industrial investment mergers and acquisitions, etc. Capital operation can effectively make up for its shortcomings in the security industry and occupy a very important position in the future competition.
In addition, Internet companies have a strong competitive advantage in artificial intelligence public safety cloud services by virtue of their advantages in Internet portals and big data resources. With its advantages in data communication, data storage and processing, network communication equipment enterprises will bring more comprehensive solutions to high-end security users such as public security and finance, and will surely occupy a place in the future competition.
The future has come, but the future is farther. I hope that China's security industry will continue to lead the world in the artificial intelligence + security industry wave for the benefit of all mankind.
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